feat(model): shipped joins the evidence vector as a within-tier weight; v5 baseline

v5 (parameter-fed carried confirmed by the exact flow): pmpro 69, wpstatistics 172, mwwpform 68,
vampi 16. Reading the recorded head of each order: every region ahead of a CVE is in its tier on a tied
or higher score, and 10 of the 67 ahead of MW WP Form's are test-mail.php. The build's own word on what
is product was on the region and not in the vector; it is now, at -2.0 for an unshipped file. Orders
only, never promotes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T7XD7x5KonMdmGRkp63EQG

src/openultrasast/model/evidence.py

@@ -32,6 +32,9 @@ WEIGHTS: dict[str, float] = {
     "source_near": 1.0,  # a modelled source within the arbiter's callDepth
     "entry": 0.5,  # parameters untrusted by contract
     "access_declared_public": 1.0,
+    # A file the build does not ship: tests, fixtures, examples. Measured: 10 of the 67 regions ahead of
+    # MW WP Form's CVE were test-mail.php.
+    "unshipped": -2.0,
 }
 OPEN_SINK_CAP = 5
 CLEANSED_SINK_CAP = 3
@@ -66,6 +69,7 @@ class Evidence:
     access_declared_public: bool = False  # declared, not inferred -- "no decorator found" is not "public"
     carried: bool | None = None  # stage one of the two-stage join, the STRONG form; None where it was not computed
     carried_weak: bool = False  # the weak form: a field assigned from a parameter of its method. Orders, never promotes.
+    shipped: bool = True  # the project's own build declaration names this file (regions.shipped); tests and fixtures are not
     bound_names: tuple[str, ...] = field(default=())  # sink names the shape test treats as bound at arity >= 2
 
     @property
@@ -114,6 +118,7 @@ class Evidence:
             + (w["source_near"] if self.source_near else 0.0)
             + (w["entry"] if self.entry else 0.0)
             + (w["access_declared_public"] if self.access_declared_public else 0.0)
+            + (w["unshipped"] if not self.shipped else 0.0)
         )
 
     @property
@@ -129,6 +134,7 @@ def evidence_from_rows(
     access_declared_public: bool = False,
     carried: bool | None = None,
     bound_names: Sequence[str] = (),
+    shipped: bool = True,
 ) -> Evidence | None:
     """Read the query's evidence rows for one request. ``None`` when the query did not answer.
 
@@ -165,6 +171,7 @@ def evidence_from_rows(
         if "carried" in summary
         else carried,
         carried_weak=str(summary.get("carriedKind", "")) == "parameter",
+        shipped=shipped,
         bound_names=tuple(bound_names),
     )
 

src/openultrasast/model/scan.py

@@ -397,6 +397,7 @@ def _evidence_pass(
             # the brief names it as the field to thread through next.
             access_declared_public=region.rank >= 1.0,
             bound_names=getattr(spec, "safe_shape_sinks", ()),
+            shipped=bool(getattr(region, "shipped", True)),
         )
         if evidence is not None:
             out[_pair_key(region, spec)] = evidence

tests/test_model_evidence.py

@@ -175,3 +175,15 @@ def test_carried_provenance_promotes_only_when_source_fed() -> None:
     assert weak is not None and weak.tier == TIER_OPEN and weak.carried is False and weak.carried_weak
     assert none is not None and none.tier == TIER_OPEN and not none.carried_weak
     assert weak.score - none.score == WEIGHTS["carried_weak"]
+
+
+def test_an_unshipped_file_orders_after_a_shipped_one_in_the_same_tier() -> None:
+    """`shipped` is the build's own word on what is product; a test fixture with the same sink and source
+    is not where the bug ships. Orders only: the tier is unchanged."""
+    from openultrasast.model.evidence import WEIGHTS, Evidence, SinkEvidence
+
+    sink = SinkEvidence(code="q(1)", line=1, method="m", arity=1, arg0_literal=False, cleansed_on_call=False)
+    product = Evidence(sinks=(sink,), source_local=True, shipped=True)
+    fixture = Evidence(sinks=(sink,), source_local=True, shipped=False)
+    assert product.tier == fixture.tier
+    assert product.score - fixture.score == -WEIGHTS["unshipped"]