bench(learn): exp-002 result -- retrieval ensemble vs temperature sampling

Reject B. 160 paired units (injection 119, access_control 41; 56 repositories),
both arms, two replicates each, no early stop. Canary agreement A 0.875 -> B
0.906 (CI [-0.03, +0.10], spans; B meets 0.90). Within-pair AUC A 0.815 -> B
0.741 (CI [-0.13, -0.02], against B). AUC -0.02 (against), ADVISORY recall
-0.06 and precision +0.01 (span), usd per candidate A $0.0021 -> B $0.0051
(against). Priced usage A $0.68 / B $1.63; balance $16.72 -> $16.04 at the
run's end (lags). Counts only; task 7.4 marked done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
This commit is contained in:
Marius Ciepluch
2026-10-02 19:05:34 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5.1
parent 780caaa558
commit 48510fd5c2
4 changed files with 631 additions and 3 deletions
+12 -2
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@@ -139,8 +139,18 @@ a model or embedding call.
on them, so `ousast learn experiment units` could not freeze the candidates.
- [ ] 7.3 exp-001 run and recorded (~$7.7 expected, ceiling $15) -- an inconclusive result is pre-registered as
likely; needs the frozen units file first.
- [ ] 7.4 exp-002 run and recorded **(budget go-ahead: ~$2 expected, ceiling $4)**; further program variants
(`k = 5` vs `k = 1`, the confidence source) as new manifests.
- [x] 7.4 exp-002 run and recorded 2026-10-02 (budget go-ahead ~$2 expected, ceiling $4): **reject B**. 160 paired
units (injection 119, access_control 41; 56 repositories; 108 units in 54 candidate pairs), both arms, two
replicates each, no early stop. Primary: canary agreement A 0.875 -> B 0.906 (diff +0.03, CI [-0.03, +0.10],
spans; B meets the 0.90 target), within-pair AUC A 0.815 -> B 0.741 (diff -0.07, CI [-0.13, -0.02], **against B**).
Secondary: AUC -0.02 (CI [-0.04, -0.003], against), ADVISORY recall -0.06 (spans; McNemar 7/2, p = 0.18),
precision +0.01 (spans), usd per candidate A $0.0021 -> B $0.0051 (CI [+0.0027, +0.0032], against: the five
disjoint example sets share only the prompt prefix in DeepSeek's cache). Priced usage A $0.68 (1206 paid calls,
395 replayed), B $1.63 (1350 paid, 250 replayed). Result: `benchmarks/experiments/exp-002-retrieval-ensemble/result.json`,
`benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-02-exp-002/record.json`. Three repairs on the way (each its own commit): example
rows' null plane-only features (1f525ff), the 788 embedding vectors absent from RustFS (copied from the file
store), the result row's column-type collision under S3 Select (780caaa). Further program variants (`k = 5` vs
`k = 1`, the confidence source) as new manifests.
- _Requirements: 3.6, 4.1-4.4_
- [ ] 8. Integration