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bench(learn): exp-002 result -- retrieval ensemble vs temperature sampling
Reject B. 160 paired units (injection 119, access_control 41; 56 repositories), both arms, two replicates each, no early stop. Canary agreement A 0.875 -> B 0.906 (CI [-0.03, +0.10], spans; B meets 0.90). Within-pair AUC A 0.815 -> B 0.741 (CI [-0.13, -0.02], against B). AUC -0.02 (against), ADVISORY recall -0.06 and precision +0.01 (span), usd per candidate A $0.0021 -> B $0.0051 (against). Priced usage A $0.68 / B $1.63; balance $16.72 -> $16.04 at the run's end (lags). Counts only; task 7.4 marked done. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
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Claude Fable 5.1
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@@ -139,8 +139,18 @@ a model or embedding call.
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on them, so `ousast learn experiment units` could not freeze the candidates.
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- [ ] 7.3 exp-001 run and recorded (~$7.7 expected, ceiling $15) -- an inconclusive result is pre-registered as
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likely; needs the frozen units file first.
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- [ ] 7.4 exp-002 run and recorded **(budget go-ahead: ~$2 expected, ceiling $4)**; further program variants
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(`k = 5` vs `k = 1`, the confidence source) as new manifests.
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- [x] 7.4 exp-002 run and recorded 2026-10-02 (budget go-ahead ~$2 expected, ceiling $4): **reject B**. 160 paired
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units (injection 119, access_control 41; 56 repositories; 108 units in 54 candidate pairs), both arms, two
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replicates each, no early stop. Primary: canary agreement A 0.875 -> B 0.906 (diff +0.03, CI [-0.03, +0.10],
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spans; B meets the 0.90 target), within-pair AUC A 0.815 -> B 0.741 (diff -0.07, CI [-0.13, -0.02], **against B**).
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Secondary: AUC -0.02 (CI [-0.04, -0.003], against), ADVISORY recall -0.06 (spans; McNemar 7/2, p = 0.18),
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precision +0.01 (spans), usd per candidate A $0.0021 -> B $0.0051 (CI [+0.0027, +0.0032], against: the five
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disjoint example sets share only the prompt prefix in DeepSeek's cache). Priced usage A $0.68 (1206 paid calls,
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395 replayed), B $1.63 (1350 paid, 250 replayed). Result: `benchmarks/experiments/exp-002-retrieval-ensemble/result.json`,
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`benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-02-exp-002/record.json`. Three repairs on the way (each its own commit): example
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rows' null plane-only features (1f525ff), the 788 embedding vectors absent from RustFS (copied from the file
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store), the result row's column-type collision under S3 Select (780caaa). Further program variants (`k = 5` vs
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`k = 1`, the confidence source) as new manifests.
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- _Requirements: 3.6, 4.1-4.4_
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- [ ] 8. Integration
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