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docs(benchmark): pilot numbers, hunter arm final and push hook interim

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Arm (b) hunter over all 252 changes: recall 6/12 raw, 5/12 with the classifier
filter; false alarms 92.5 and 54.4 per 100 ordinary pushes. Arm (a) push hook at
163/252: recall 0/12, 0.7 false alarms per 100. Per-positive table, classifier
stats, the one hook false alarm, and the disk fix for the replay output.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
This commit is contained in:
Marius Ciepluch
2026-10-13 08:13:02 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5.1
parent abd82c6e33
commit af7d3e49b1
7 changed files with 1821 additions and 7 deletions
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benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-valid-benchmark-pilot/NOTES.md
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# Valid detection benchmark, pilot (2026-10-12)
First build of the benchmark defined in `.kiro/specs/valid-detection-benchmark/`. Labels come from
the fix, not SZZ. The frozen manifest is at `benchmarks/valid/pilot/` (`pool-valid.toml`,
`freeze-valid.json`). This directory keeps the provenance.
First build and first run of the benchmark defined in `.kiro/specs/valid-detection-benchmark/`.
Labels come from the fix, not SZZ. The frozen manifest is at `benchmarks/valid/pilot/`
(`pool-valid.toml`, `freeze-valid.json`). This directory keeps the provenance and the numbers.
## Numbers (read 2026-10-13 morning)
Two arms over the same 252 changes (12 verified positives, 240 ordinary pushes from the same 12
repos), as R6 of the requirements asks:
- **(a) push hook as shipped**: quick rules + engine, 300 s deadline, the Docker replay lane, no
model key in the container. Still running when this was written: 163 of 252 records done (all 12
positives, 151 ordinary). The final numbers land in `MORNING.txt` outside the repo and will replace
the `*_interim_163.json` files here.
- **(b) hunter arm**: the LLM tool hunter (`scan --mode deep`'s search) run off-cluster over the
changed files at head, every finding classified into the taxonomy by the decision-engine
classifier. Finished: 252 of 252. Reported twice: raw (every hunter suspicion counts) and
filtered (only suspicions the classifier judged `vulnerable`).
| Metric | (a) push hook, 163 done | (b) hunter, raw | (b') hunter, classifier-filtered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recall (12 positives) | 0 / 12 = 0% (Wilson 0 to 24.3) | 6 / 12 = 50% (25.4 to 74.6) | 5 / 12 = 41.7% (19.3 to 68.0) |
| False alarms per 100 ordinary pushes | 1 / 149 = 0.7 (0.1 to 3.7) | 221 / 239 = 92.5 (88.4 to 95.2) | 130 / 239 = 54.4 (48.1 to 60.6) |
| Precision (flagged pushes that were positives) | 0 / 1 | 6 / 232 = 2.6% | 5 / 139 = 3.6% |
| Exploit-verified | 0 (no proof run) | 0 (no proof run) | 0 (no proof run) |
| Instrument failures | 2 / 163 | 1 / 252 | 1 / 252 |
Neither arm meets the gate (recall at least 90%, false alarms under 10 per 100 pushes). The hook as
shipped is quiet and blind on this set. The hunter finds about half and alarms on more than half of
ordinary pushes even after the classifier. The whole-tool number the brief holds the tool to is
(a) plus (b'); since (a) caught nothing, it equals (b') on recall and adds one false alarm.
Files: `scored_a_interim_163.json`, `metrics_a_interim_163.json`, `scored_b_raw.json`,
`metrics_b_raw.json`, `scored_b_filtered.json`, `metrics_b_filtered.json`. Scorer:
`benchmarks/unseen/score.py` (a catch needs the labelled family and a location inside the labelled
function or within 10 lines of it). Metrics: `benchmarks/valid/metrics.py`.
### Per positive
| Repo | Label | (a) hook | (b) raw | (b') filtered | What the hunter did |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bytebase/dbhub | access_control | miss (engine ran) | miss | miss | 8 suspicions in the right files, all `not_vulnerable` or `unsure`, none typed access_control |
| contentful/contentful-mcp-server | untrusted_destination | miss | miss | miss | 2 `vulnerable` hits in the labelled file, typed `path`; family mismatch, not credited |
| fastapi-users/fastapi-users | access_control | miss | miss | miss | 0 suspicions |
| i18next/i18next-http-middleware | output_encoding | miss | hit | miss | hit at `lib/index.js:96`, classifier said `unsure`, dropped by the filter |
| imzbf/md-editor-v3 | output_encoding | miss (engine ran) | hit | hit | 9 `vulnerable` html-injection suspicions at the labelled sites |
| jupyter-lsp/jupyterlab-lsp | path | miss | hit | hit | 3 `vulnerable` path hits in the labelled file |
| matrix-org/matrix-appservice-bridge | access_control | miss (engine ran) | miss | miss | 5 "complexity hotspot" suspicions in the right file, all `not_vulnerable` |
| nvbn/thefuck | path | miss (engine ran) | hit | hit | both labelled functions hit, `vulnerable` 0.85 to 0.9 |
| ondata/ckan-mcp-server | untrusted_destination | miss | hit | hit | 2 `vulnerable` ssrf hits in `http.ts` |
| webpack/webpack-bundle-analyzer | output_encoding | miss | miss | miss | `vulnerable` output_encoding hit in `viewer.js:185`, outside the labelled function |
| zenitram/malla | output_encoding | miss | hit | hit | 7 `vulnerable` dom-xss hits |
| zereight/gitlab-mcp | path | miss | miss | miss | 5 suspicions, none typed path |
Two misses are scorer strictness rather than blindness: contentful (right file, family typed `path`
instead of `untrusted_destination`) and webpack (right file and family, other function). Keep the
strict scorer; note them.
### Arm (a) detail
- Engine finished inside 300 s on 100 of 163 changes (61%); 61 fell back to quick rules only; 2
instrument failures (`contentful` 9e706114, `matrix` 7018468e, nothing readable at the hotspots).
On the positives: engine ran on 4 of 12, quick only on 8.
- Every record proves the instrument: hook exit 0, bytes read per changed file, base and head
verified.
- The one false alarm: `bytebase/dbhub` 5bd45460, quick rule `js-command-exec` (CWE-78) at
`src/connectors/sqlite/index.ts:132`, "Node child_process command execution needs review".
### Arm (b) detail
- 1398 suspicions over 251 pushes: mean 5.6 per ordinary push, median 5, max 23.
- Classifier verdicts: 377 `vulnerable`, 968 `not_vulnerable`, 53 `unsure`, 0 errors. Families among
the `vulnerable` ones: config_secrets 103, injection 74, output_encoding 58, access_control 54,
path 39, untrusted_destination 33, prototype 10, other 6.
- The hunter's own `family:` tag is free text (`sql-parser`, `complexity-hotspot`, `dom-xss`), so
without the classifier every finding scored `unknown`. Product follow-up: constrain the hunter
prompt to the taxonomy (`tool_hunter.py`) so the push path emits taxonomy families natively.
- The instrument failure: `matrix` 7018468e, no readable hotspot (`hook_bytes_read: 0`).
### What to do with this
1. The push hook needs the LLM tier (owned by `pre-push-safety-net`): the hook as shipped caught
none of the 12. That is the product gap R6 names.
2. The hunter needs a precision step before it can sit on pre-push: 54 alarms per 100 pushes after
the classifier is far from 10. Candidates: require `vulnerable` with confidence at or above 0.7,
drop `config_secrets` noise in ordinary pushes, restrict to changed lines, or run the proof arm on
the survivors.
3. Twelve positives give intervals 50 points wide. Grow to the ~40 positives `score.py:required_n`
asks for before quoting a single recall number.
## What was built
@@ -15,6 +100,8 @@ the fix, not SZZ. The frozen manifest is at `benchmarks/valid/pilot/` (`pool-val
| Negatives | 20 ordinary first-parent commits per positive change, drawn from the same repo, fix excluded. 240 in total. |
| Held-out guard | 0 dropped against the training-only used set (1777 names: pairs, pointers, harvest, units, sweep). |
| Freeze | 252 changes: 12 `vulnerability` + 240 `ordinary`. Digest in `freeze-valid.json`. |
| Replay, arm (a) | `benchmarks/unseen/replay.py --arm long_deadline`, Docker lane, one container at a time on the local host, about 14 records per hour. Started 2026-10-12 19:51. |
| Hunter, arm (b) | `benchmarks/valid/hunter_arm.py run`, positives 20:23 to 20:51, ordinary 20:51 to 22:00. |
## The 12 positives
@@ -52,14 +139,25 @@ change.
training source (pairs, pointers, harvest, units, sweep).
- **Catalog enumeration skips a site it cannot read** (fix renamed or removed the function) instead
of aborting the whole run. Verification stays strict.
- **The hook has no LLM detection tier.** `push/assistance.py` only picks witnesses for defects the
engine already admitted. R6 was amended to measure the hook as shipped and the hook plus the
hunter arm; the second is the number the tool is held to.
- **Hunter findings are classified, never relabelled.** The classifier gets the finding's excerpt
and the taxonomy list; the change's own label is never shown to it. The raw hunter family, title
and rationale stay on the defect for audit.
- **Replay output kept every result twice** (top level and `attempt-*/`), 30 MB a record, and the
host hit 1.1 GB free at record 162. Byte-identical `attempt-*/` copies of finished records were
removed; a guard repeats that while the replay runs. Nothing in Docker was touched.
## Not done yet
- **Replay** (whole tool, all tiers on) has not run. 252 changes at the engine's ~200 s fixed cost is
about 14 hours one container at a time on the local host; that scale belongs on the kube `ax` lane,
still blocked on the gVisor checkpoint path.
- **Metrics** (recall, precision, false alarms per 100 pushes, exploit-verified rate) follow the replay.
- Final arm (a) numbers on all 252 changes (replay finishing 2026-10-13 afternoon), then the
combined (a)+(b') score with `hunter_arm combine --keep-verdicts vulnerable`.
- Exploit-verified rate: the proof arm has not run on any of the 26 flagged positive findings.
- Growing from 12 to the ~40 positives `score.py:required_n` asks for.
- The 252-change replay at the engine's ~200 s fixed cost is about 17 hours one container at a time
on the local host; that scale belongs on the kube `ax` lane, still blocked on the gVisor
checkpoint path.
## Reproduce
@@ -72,4 +170,8 @@ python - <<'PY' # assemble with the training-only used set
from benchmarks.valid import assemble
... # see this directory's provenance files; used = build_used(root) minus {measurements, populations}
PY
# arm (a): replay.py --arm long_deadline, docker lane, --docker-image-bytes 3608729816, output outside the repo
# arm (b): DEEPSEEK_API_KEY=... python -m benchmarks.valid.hunter_arm run benchmarks/valid/pilot/pool-valid.toml --slice 1 --repos repos_hist.json --out <hunter_out>
python -m benchmarks.unseen.score <records_dir> --out scored.json --slice-id 1
python -m benchmarks.valid.metrics <records_dir> --scored scored.json --out metrics.json
```
benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-valid-benchmark-pilot/metrics_a_interim_163.json
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{
"exploit_verified": {
"count": 0,
"flagged_positive_pushes": 0,
"flagged_positives": 0,
"n": 0,
"not_yet_proved": [],
"rate": null,
"status": "measured",
"wilson95": [
null,
null
]
},
"false_alarms_per_100_pushes": {
"cluster95": [
0.0,
2.027027027027027
],
"count": 1,
"icc": -0.004445973772031825,
"n": 149,
"rate": 0.6711409395973155,
"wilson95": [
0.11856820977550406,
3.703427895996746
]
},
"headline": "On unseen app repos: recall 0.0% (Wilson 0.0-24.3), false alarms 0.7 per 100 pushes, precision 0.0%; exploit-verified 0 of 0.",
"precision": {
"count": 0,
"n": 1,
"rate": 0.0,
"wilson95": [
0,
0.7934567085261071
]
},
"recall": {
"cluster95": [
0.0,
0.0
],
"count": 0,
"n": 12,
"rate": 0.0,
"wilson95": [
0,
0.2425007574992425
]
}
}
benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-valid-benchmark-pilot/metrics_b_filtered.json
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{
"exploit_verified": {
"count": 0,
"flagged_positive_pushes": 9,
"flagged_positives": 26,
"n": 0,
"not_yet_proved": [
"contentful-contentful-mcp-server-22e8b2fc09c3b2c4",
"contentful-contentful-mcp-server-df53a40a29ee8d8d",
"i18next-i18next-http-middleware-f3e2a6886951f36a",
"imzbf-md-editor-v3-14658213915dbde5",
"imzbf-md-editor-v3-b9c833a3524a57a9",
"jupyter-lsp-jupyterlab-lsp-59f9a8b80b133f6f",
"nvbn-thefuck-456ad18acb14f1b2",
"nvbn-thefuck-74126de049d52d8c",
"ondata-ckan-mcp-server-01a3f68f84397eb4",
"ondata-ckan-mcp-server-b0b05cdc830b1f8b",
"webpack-webpack-bundle-analyzer-8e07af8a5ee1cc52",
"zenitram-malla-15753fae1999978e",
"zenitram-malla-45807117f798f314",
"zenitram-malla-4c7ce7ae0b9dd0cf",
"zenitram-malla-5b8f3116fefd595b",
"zenitram-malla-72b8d4dc93a566fb",
"zenitram-malla-73c0175a1009ffbf",
"zenitram-malla-825a0f3ce563c373",
"zenitram-malla-858255cb6145e104",
"zenitram-malla-92e437caca55290b",
"zenitram-malla-aeb1d1e3d40815a8",
"zenitram-malla-bf4b3bcd2652952c",
"zenitram-malla-c3ab7f5f4e769cc6",
"zenitram-malla-f3535c03a02fa0e3",
"zereight-gitlab-mcp-2367b459f8c3802b",
"zereight-gitlab-mcp-768c7d5a32ccc95b"
],
"rate": null,
"status": "not yet proved",
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null,
null
]
},
"false_alarms_per_100_pushes": {
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47.083333333333336,
61.66666666666667
],
"count": 130,
"icc": 0.022377467632178107,
"n": 239,
"rate": 54.39330543933054,
"wilson95": [
48.0589907402735,
60.58862153044123
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},
"headline": "On unseen app repos: recall 41.7% (Wilson 19.3-68.0), false alarms 54.4 per 100 pushes, precision 3.6%; exploit-verified 0 of 26 (26 not yet proved).",
"precision": {
"count": 5,
"n": 139,
"rate": 0.03597122302158273,
"wilson95": [
0.015460613110063436,
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"recall": {
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0.16666666666666666,
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],
"count": 5,
"n": 12,
"rate": 0.4166666666666667,
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}
}
benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-valid-benchmark-pilot/metrics_b_raw.json
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{
"exploit_verified": {
"count": 0,
"flagged_positive_pushes": 11,
"flagged_positives": 28,
"n": 0,
"not_yet_proved": [
"bytebase-dbhub-f2624a2ead8d31ca",
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"contentful-contentful-mcp-server-df53a40a29ee8d8d",
"i18next-i18next-http-middleware-f3e2a6886951f36a",
"imzbf-md-editor-v3-14658213915dbde5",
"imzbf-md-editor-v3-b9c833a3524a57a9",
"jupyter-lsp-jupyterlab-lsp-59f9a8b80b133f6f",
"matrix-org-matrix-appservice-bridge-3a8081647e10c293",
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"nvbn-thefuck-74126de049d52d8c",
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"ondata-ckan-mcp-server-b0b05cdc830b1f8b",
"webpack-webpack-bundle-analyzer-8e07af8a5ee1cc52",
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"zenitram-malla-45807117f798f314",
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"zenitram-malla-72b8d4dc93a566fb",
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"precision": {
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}
benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-valid-benchmark-pilot/scored_a_interim_163.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,500 @@
{
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