docs: retire the SZZ-pool metric, add the valid-benchmark brief, plain-English pass

The frozen SZZ-labeled pool is not a valid benchmark. SZZ puts the vulnerability in
the wrong place about half the time, and ~76% of entries are library-internal (not
reachable in-repo), so its catch/false-alarm numbers (record 07's "3/92") are noise.
Retired as a metric and a gate across the roadmap and briefs; no pool-scored number
is quoted anywhere.

Added .kiro/specs/valid-detection-benchmark/brief.md: positives labelled from the
fix (not SZZ), kept only when app-shaped and reachable in-repo, each verified;
ordinary negatives from the same repos; unseen repos; the whole tool measured; plain
metrics (catch rate, false-alarms per 100 pushes, precision, proved-catch).

Ran a plain-English pass (the humanizer rules) on the roadmap, README, and the two
active briefs via Codex, then reviewed the diff: only these files changed, every
number/path/hash/command is unchanged, and the retired-metric decision is intact.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <[email protected]>
This commit is contained in:
Marius Ciepluch
2026-10-12 16:38:18 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 4.8
parent c3f610f9f4
commit b08f372022
4 changed files with 455 additions and 371 deletions
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@@ -1,93 +1,93 @@
# Engine change-scoped analysis (G2 workstream)
Status: **proposed / in progress** (opened 2026-10-11). Owner: engine. Tracks a concrete lever for the
engine-detection gap found while driving the G0 baseline. This is G2 ("improve what moves the unseen-repo
numbers"), gated on the pool metric; it is NOT part of the G0 record-07 baseline (that runs on the quick-rule tier).
Status: **proposed / in progress** (opened 2026-10-11). Owner: engine. Tracks work to address the
engine-detection gap found during the G0 baseline run. This is G2 ("improve what moves the unseen-repo
numbers"), gated on the pool metric; it is not part of the G0 record-07 baseline (that runs on the quick-rule tier).
## Problem (measured, not assumed)
On real unseen vulnerability changes the engine produces **no finding** — but the diagnosis (live, 300 s long-deadline
replays) shows it is usually **not a detection-capability gap**:
The engine produces **no finding** on real unseen vulnerability changes. Live 300 s long-deadline replays show
that the cause is usually not a detection-capability gap:
- **Clean Python injection change** (`aws/bedrock-agentcore-sdk-python`, `install_packages`, introducing, 3-file
diff): `wall=303 s`, hit the deadline. The ranker found candidates (`static_rank=1.0`) but **`selected: []`** and
every candidate `deferred` with `reason: deadline_exhausted`, `analysis_not_started=deadline_exhausted`,
`change_context_incomplete`. **Zero analyses ran.** And the ranked candidates were **repo-wide and unrelated to
`change_context_incomplete`. No analyses ran. The ranked candidates were **repo-wide and unrelated to
the push** (`auth.py` access_control/config_secrets), not the changed `install_packages`. The engine is trying to
re-audit the whole repo and runs out of budget before analyzing the change.
- **Noisy last_touch config_secrets change** (`jenkinsci/metrics-plugin`, 14-file diff): finished in 206 s but
`comparison_unknown` + `capability_unavailable` + `eligibility_provenance_mismatch` +
`contributor-scan ... projection_unavailable`. Multi-causal; correspondence was one part (fixed separately,
commit c39fbb8), capability registry is Task 8.3.
`contributor-scan ... projection_unavailable`. This has several causes. Correspondence was one (fixed separately,
commit c39fbb8); the capability registry is Task 8.3.
## Hypothesis
A pre-push hook should vet **the code this push changed**, not re-scan the whole repository. Seeding/scoping the
engine's analysis to the **changed declarations and their dataflow neighborhood** (the `change_sites` are already in
the replay spec) should let analysis **actually run within budget** instead of being deferred — which is where
detection is being lost, not in Joern's capability.
A pre-push hook should check **the code this push changed**. Starting the engine's analysis from the
**changed declarations and their dataflow neighborhood** should let it run within budget instead of being
deferred. The `change_sites` are already in the replay spec. The missed detection comes from deferral,
rather than a limit in Joern's capability.
## Anchors (confirm in increment 1)
- `src/openultrasast/rank.py` — the static-evidence ranker (`ranking_mode="evidence"`, `existing-static-evidence-v1`).
- `src/openultrasast/mapping.py` — builds the `selected`/`deferred` scope + the budget allocation that defers on
- `src/openultrasast/rank.py` is the static-evidence ranker (`ranking_mode="evidence"`, `existing-static-evidence-v1`).
- `src/openultrasast/mapping.py` builds the `selected`/`deferred` scope + the budget allocation that defers on
`deadline_exhausted`.
- `src/openultrasast/push/policy.py`, `push/runner.py` — consume the scope; change_sites arrive via the push input.
- `benchmarks/unseen/replay_entry.py` — carries `changed_paths` / `declaration_paths` in the spec.
- `src/openultrasast/push/policy.py` and `push/runner.py` consume the scope; change_sites arrive via the push input.
- `benchmarks/unseen/replay_entry.py` carries `changed_paths` / `declaration_paths` in the spec.
## Increments (progress tracking)
- [x] **0. Cost split confirmed (2026-10-11, timed live replay).** `build_seconds=66.69` (CPG build is cheap),
`query_seconds=0.0` (no query ever executed), total 303 s (hit the deadline), **4,095** candidate questions all
`analysis_not_started=deadline_exhausted`, `selected: []`, `regions_scanned=0`. So of the 303 s, ~67 s built the
CPG and ~236 s went to enumerating/ranking/preparing 4,095 repo-wide candidate questions for a **3-file** change —
the budget was spent before a single query ran. The CPG build is NOT the bottleneck; the over-broad candidate set
is. Change-scoping is confirmed as the right lever, and because per-candidate prep includes the line-correspondence
work, fewer candidates also cuts that cost (the two fixes compound).
CPG and ~236 s went to enumerating/ranking/preparing 4,095 repo-wide candidate questions for a **3-file** change.
The budget was spent before a single query ran. The over-broad candidate set is the bottleneck, rather than the CPG build.
This confirms change-scoping as the fix. Preparing each candidate includes line-correspondence work,
so fewer candidates also reduce that cost.
- [x] **1. Located (2026-10-11).** The over-enumeration is upstream of the scan, not inside it:
- `push/runner.py:345-348` — `head_regions = discovery(tip.root, …)` discovers regions across the **whole head
- `push/runner.py:345-348`, `head_regions = discovery(tip.root, …)` discovers regions across the **whole head
tree** (the ~4,095), independent of the change.
- `push/runner.py:397-407` — those regions are passed wholesale to `scan_repository(..., change_context=context)`;
- `push/runner.py:397-407`, those regions are passed wholesale to `scan_repository(..., change_context=context)`;
`change_context` is threaded in but **never scopes the region set**.
- `model/scan.py:167` and `:364` — `[_identity(unit, r, f) for r in regions for f in r.families]` enumerates all
- `model/scan.py:167` and `:364`, `[_identity(unit, r, f) for r in regions for f in r.families]` enumerates all
regions × families; with `order_by_evidence=True` (`runner.py:288/403`) the scan evidence-tiers **every** pair
before analysis — that pre-work is the ~236 s measured in increment 0, so the deadline hits at `query_seconds=0`.
before analysis. That pre-work is the ~236 s measured in increment 0, so the deadline hits at `query_seconds=0`.
- Primitive already present: `model/regions.py:279` computes the changed-path set from the context;
`compare_targeted_base` (`runner.py:411`) is a precedent for change-targeted work.
- **Fix locus (increment 2):** restrict the *analyzed* region set to the change's declarations + dataflow
- For increment 2, restrict the *analyzed* region set to the change's declarations + dataflow
neighbourhood (filter `head_regions` by `context.changed_paths` before the scan, or scope the enumeration inside
`scan_repository`). Keep the **CPG whole-repo** so taint queries can still trace sources from unchanged code into
the changed regions — only the question set is change-scoped.
the changed regions. Only the question set is change-scoped.
**Correction (2026-10-11), after a reverted first attempt — two things the naive filter got wrong:**
Correction (2026-10-11), after reverting the first attempt: the filter got two things wrong.
- **The engine already reaches into unchanged code by design, and it is tested.** A changed `source` that reaches
an unchanged `sink` must still select the unchanged sink's question
(`tests/test_model_change_context.py::test_changed_dependency_reaches_unchanged_ranked_question`;
`test_change_does_not_replace_ranker_selection` pins that change context must NOT alter the ranker's selection).
`_changed_files` feeds `_evidence_pass` only as `contextFilter`/`contextPaths` — which locations to itemise vs
summarise — NOT to shrink the tier population. A "changed files only" scope deletes the reach-into-unchanged
`test_change_does_not_replace_ranker_selection` pins that change context must not alter the ranker's selection).
`_changed_files` feeds `_evidence_pass` only as `contextFilter`/`contextPaths`. This controls which locations to itemise vs
summarise, rather than shrinking the tier population. A "changed files only" scope deletes the reach-into-unchanged
behaviour. Any scope must keep changed regions **plus the regions they reach** (the affected/`relationships`
neighbourhood), not changed files alone.
- **The 236 s is now split (2026-10-11, saved artifacts).** `total=291s build=52s query=0s arbitrate=238.75s`,
and `query_seconds_by_kind["evidence"]=238.54s` — the evidence-tier pass is **99.9 %** of the arbitrate phase;
and `query_seconds_by_kind["evidence"]=238.54s`, the evidence-tier pass is **99.9 %** of the arbitrate phase;
`affected_context` + `_scope_work` are **0.21 s**. The pass tiered 1,015 pairs (`tier_counts 0:1009, 1:6`) at
**~235 ms/pair** (contended; ~120 ms uncontended) and that alone blew the budget — `selected=0`,
**~235 ms/pair** (contended; ~120 ms uncontended) and that alone blew the budget, `selected=0`,
`deferred=1365` all `deadline_exhausted`. Secondary anomaly: the design assumes ~2.5 ms/pair
("17,700 in 44 s"); here it is 50–100× that, i.e. the evidence query is pathologically slow on a cold large
CPG — a separate optimisation from cutting the pair count.
- **So increment 2's single target is the evidence pass** (`scan.py:338-359`, `_evidence_pass`). The fork is HOW
to cut it without deleting reach-into-unchanged:
- (i) **Scope + bound:** order the evidence candidates change-first and bound the pass to a fraction of the
("17,700 in 44 s"); here it is 50–100× that, i.e. the evidence query is unusually slow on a cold large
CPG. Fixing that is separate from cutting the pair count.
- Increment 2 targets the evidence pass (`scan.py:338-359`, `_evidence_pass`). The options must
reduce its cost while preserving flows into unchanged code:
- (i) Scope + bound: order the evidence candidates change-first and bound the pass to a fraction of the
budget so analysis queries still run; reached unchanged regions are tiered only while budget lasts.
- (ii) **Neighbourhood pass:** tier the changed regions, read the reached regions from the context rows the
pass already returns, tier those in a second small pass — exact reach-into-unchanged, more code.
- (iii) **Per-pair speedup:** attack the ~235 ms/pair (warm server / batching) rather than the pair count —
helps every scan but is a deeper engine change and does not by itself bound a huge repo.
- (ii) Neighbourhood pass: tier the changed regions, read the reached regions from the context rows the
pass already returns, then tier those in a second small pass. This preserves exact reach-into-unchanged behaviour but needs more code.
- (iii) Per-pair speedup: reduce the ~235 ms/pair (warm server / batching) rather than the pair count.
This helps every scan but needs a deeper engine change and does not by itself bound work on a huge repo.
**CORRECTION (2026-10-11, after implementing (i) + four live re-verifies — the cost model was wrong).**
**CORRECTION (2026-10-11, after implementing (i) + four live re-verifies, the cost model was wrong).**
Scope + bound was built and tested (change-first ordering, adaptive budget-fitted portioning, `_context_pass`
scoped to changed files, honest `evidence_pass_bounded` degradation; branch `engine-change-scoped-evidence-pass`).
It correctly cut the tiered pair count — but `query_seconds` stayed **0** every time. The live numbers show why:
It cut the tiered pair count, but `query_seconds` stayed **0** every time. The live numbers show why:
| pairs tiered | run_batch calls | evidence s | build s |
|---|---|---|---|
@@ -99,53 +99,53 @@ detection is being lost, not in Joern's capability.
Evidence time is **flat regardless of pair count** → the cost is **per-*call* fixed** (~150–220 s: loading the CPG
into the query engine + the census the evidenceOnly batch computes), ~85 ms/pair on top. Pair-count scoping
therefore cannot free budget, and portioning re-pays the fixed cost per call (so (i) can be counterproductive).
Build is also large and swings 52→127 s — two engines thrashing the 7 GB host (the record-07 baseline shares it).
The real levers are now (iii)-shaped, not (i): **warm/persistent query engine or a cached census** to kill the
~150 s per-call fixed cost, and/or a **bigger engine-arm budget** than 300 s; plus a **clean (uncontended)
measurement**, because contention alone may be inflating build + fixed cost 2–3×. Scope+bound is NOT merged.
Build time also varies from 52→127 s. Two engines compete for the 7 GB host, which the record-07 baseline shares.
The fixes now resemble (iii), rather than (i): a **warm/persistent query engine or a cached census** to remove the
~150 s per-call fixed cost, and/or a **bigger engine-arm budget** than 300 s. A **clean (uncontended)
measurement** is also needed because contention may inflate build + fixed cost 2–3×. Scope+bound is not merged.
**UNCONTENDED measurement (2026-10-11, baseline paused via SIGSTOP + container kill, then resumed).** Shipped
engine, one evidence call over 1,015 pairs: `build=48 s`, `evidence=243.79 s`, `query=0`. The evidence pass is
**the same ~244 s uncontended as ~238 s contended** → the cost is **INTRINSIC, not contention**; contention only
**the same ~244 s uncontended as ~238 s contended** → the cost is **intrinsic, not contention**; contention only
inflated `build` (48 → 127 s) and added run-to-run noise. The model is `evidence ≈ 150 s fixed (CPG load into the
query engine + the census the evidenceOnly batch computes) + ~93 ms/pair` (244 = 150 + 1015×0.093). Consequences:
- **~200 s of fixed overhead** (`build` + evidence-load) precedes any analysis, so a 300 s budget leaves only
~100 s for everything else. This is why `query=0` even on a clean host.
- **Change-scoping still helps, but only by cutting the per-pair tail** (~1,015×93 ms ≈ 95 s): one evidence call
over ~30 changed pairs is ~150 s + 3 s instead of 244 s, which would free ~90 s — possibly enough for analysis,
but marginal.
over ~30 changed pairs is ~150 s + 3 s instead of 244 s. This would free ~90 s, which might leave enough time
for analysis, but only just.
- **It must be ONE call, not portioned.** The ~150 s is a first-call load, so the adaptive probe attributed it to
its 4 probe pairs (per-pair≈37 s), concluded the budget fit ~0 more, and tiered only 4 — the implemented
scope+bound is doubly wrong for this cost model. The correct shape: change-first candidates, count-capped, ONE
its 4 probe pairs (per-pair≈37 s), concluded the budget fit ~0 more, and tiered only 4, the implemented
scope+bound has both problems under this cost model. The correct shape: change-first candidates, count-capped, ONE
evidence call, `deadline=None`.
- **Pre-push viability:** the ~200 s fixed floor means the engine arm cannot be a fast (≤30 s) pre-push check on a
- Pre-push viability: the ~200 s fixed floor means the engine arm cannot be a fast (≤30 s) pre-push check on a
repo this size without a warm/persistent session or a cached census. A larger budget (e.g. 600 s) makes the
benchmark arm run but is not a realistic pre-push deadline. The lever that matters for the product is killing
the ~150 s fixed cost, not scoping pairs.
- [ ] **2. Seed analysis from the change.** Prioritize (or restrict first-pass to) the changed declarations plus
their call/data neighborhood over repo-wide static rank, within budget.
- [ ] **3. Soundness.** Keep cross-file dataflow INTO the changed function (don't scope to literal changed lines);
- [ ] **3. Soundness.** Keep cross-file dataflow into the changed function (don't scope to literal changed lines);
add tests; keep existing push tests green.
- [ ] **4. Live re-test.** Re-run the bedrock change: does analysis now RUN and produce a finding on
- [ ] **4. Live re-test.** Re-run the bedrock change: does analysis now run and produce a finding on
`install_packages` (vs `deferred`)? Re-run metrics-plugin.
- [ ] **5. Measure the delta.** Engine-arm sample on the pool (catch/false-alarm + engine-coverage rate) — needs the
- [ ] **5. Measure the delta.** Engine-arm sample on the pool (catch/false-alarm + engine-coverage rate), needs the
kube lane (blocked on the AX completion path) for scale.
## Dependencies / notes
- Coverage `complete_within_scope` also needs the capability registry (Task 8.3) regardless of this work; the win
here is findings moving from `comparison_unknown`/deferred to a decided novelty → advisory engine finding.
- Implement directly and verify on the LIVE instrument (a fake-client/unit pass is not evidence the live engine
changed); the kube-lane and store endpoints are operator-owned infra, not assumptions to make here.
- Coverage `complete_within_scope` also needs the capability registry (Task 8.3) regardless of this work; this work
moves findings from `comparison_unknown`/deferred to a decided novelty → advisory engine finding.
- Implement directly and verify on the live instrument (a fake-client/unit pass is not evidence the live engine
changed); the kube-lane and store endpoints are infrastructure owned by the operator.
## Efficiency barrier analysis (post-record-07 priority)
**What the record-07 baseline actually measured (verified on the records): regex only.** The default and
long_deadline replay arms both hardcode `model="disabled"`, `max_model_calls=0`, `cost_usd=0` — **no LLM is
called** — and the engine never completed (`engine_covered=0`, the ~200 s wall). So the measured `catch≈2.5%` is
the **quick pattern-rule tier alone**: essentially grep-with-structure. This is the FLOOR, not the product, and it
confirms the maintainer's point — pattern rules alone will never be enough, or `grep` would do. The product's
detection lives in two tiers that did NOT run:
The records confirm that the record-07 baseline measured regex only. The default and
long_deadline replay arms both hardcode `model="disabled"`, `max_model_calls=0`, `cost_usd=0`. No LLM is
called, and the engine never completed (`engine_covered=0`, the ~200 s wall). The measured `catch≈2.5%` covers
only the quick pattern-rule tier, a structured pattern search. This measures the floor, rather than the product.
It confirms the maintainer's point that pattern rules alone are insufficient; otherwise `grep` would do.
The product's two detection tiers did not run:
| Tier | Mechanism | Measured cost (uncontended, mid-size repo) | Ran? | Catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
@@ -153,20 +153,20 @@ detection lives in two tiers that did NOT run:
| 2 engine (Joern) | CPG build + taint/dataflow | build 48 s + evidence (150 s fixed + 93 ms/pair) + analysis (unmeasured) | no (walled) | unknown |
| 3 LLM adjudication | model judgment / search-with-proof (hunter, fusion, decision engine) | model latency + $/call (unmeasured in the push path) | no (disabled) | unknown |
**The barrier:** a releasable net needs tier 2 and/or tier 3 to run and catch within a realistic pre-push window —
target **≤60–120 s** (developer patience), hard ceiling 300 s. The analysis is a budget ledger per tier against
that window, and the measurements each needs:
To be releasable, the net needs tier 2 and/or tier 3 to run and catch within a realistic pre-push window.
The target is **≤60–120 s** (developer patience), hard ceiling 300 s. The analysis records each tier's budget against
that window and identifies the measurements needed:
- **Engine barrier (tier 2).** Fixed floor `build(48) + evidence_fixed(~150) ≈ 198 s` precedes any dataflow answer.
Measure (clean host): **E1** split the ~150 s into JVM-start / graph-load / census; **E2** does a warm session
with the graph **preloaded at build** eliminate `evidence_fixed` on the first query (the decisive architectural
with the graph **preloaded at build** eliminate `evidence_fixed` on the first query (the architectural
test)?; **E3** analysis (`reachableByFlows`) per-pair cost + warm reuse; **E4** build cost vs repo size.
Levers in priority order: warm session + graph preload → cached census → change-scope the per-pair tail.
- **LLM barrier (tier 3).** Unmeasured in the push path. Measure: **L1** model round-trip latency per call
(DeepSeek) and calls needed per push for the decision/proof stage; **L2** the recall LIFT of tier 3 over tiers
1+2 on the pool — does the LLM catch what regex and dataflow miss, and at what $ and latency per push?
- **Deliverable:** a **barrier table** — for budget ∈ {60, 120, 300, 600} s × each tier combination, does it FIT
and what is the MEASURED recall/false-alarm on the pool — identifying the minimal viable config for a releasable
(DeepSeek) and calls needed per push for the decision/proof stage; **L2** the recall lift of tier 3 over tiers
1+2 on the pool, does the LLM catch what regex and dataflow miss, and at what $ and latency per push?
- Produce a **barrier table** for budget ∈ {60, 120, 300, 600} s × each tier combination. Record whether it fits
and its measured recall/false-alarm on the pool. Use this to identify the minimal viable config for a releasable
net. 600 s unblocks the benchmark arm but is not a pre-push deadline; the product target is tiers 2+3 under ~120 s.
Sequence: finish G0 (record 07) → **E1/E2 first** (they decide whether the warm session alone crosses the engine
@@ -176,8 +176,8 @@ lever.
## E1/E2 RESULTS (measured 2026-10-12, CLEAN host, bedrock-agentcore, 3-file change, 300 s budget, head side)
Four clean-host replays settle the engine barrier and **correct the earlier "~200 s graph-load wall"**, which was
conflated with host contention from the running baseline replay:
Four clean-host replays **correct the earlier "~200 s graph-load wall"** diagnosis. It had confused graph-load
cost with host contention from the running baseline replay:
| Run | build | evidence (taint batch) | dominance | query_s | selected | deferred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
@@ -186,40 +186,40 @@ conflated with host contention from the running baseline replay:
| warm session `SESSION=1` (clean) | 32.9 | 228.6 | 25.9 | 25.9 | **356** | 1009 |
| session + graph preload (clean) | 30.4 | 223.2 | 32.5 | 32.5 | **356** | 1009 |
**Findings (each traced to a measured cause, not assumed):**
The measurements show:
1. **The engine arm was walled by CONTENTION, not an intrinsic floor.** The prior `query=0 / selected=0 / all
1. Host contention prevented the engine arm from running. The prior `query=0 / selected=0 / all
1365 deferred` was measured while the slice-1 baseline replay contended for the 7 GB host. On a clean host the
**shipped (disposable) engine already runs dataflow**: `query_seconds` 0 → ~35 s, `selected` 0 → **356 regions**,
shipped (disposable) engine already runs dataflow: `query_seconds` 0 → ~35 s, `selected` 0 → **356 regions**,
dominance flow queries complete. This is the first time the engine arm produced analysis on this change.
2. **The evidence/taint batch (~225 s) is INVARIANT to session and to graph preload** (225.1 / 228.6 / 223.2 across
2. **The evidence/taint batch (~225 s) is invariant to session and to graph preload** (225.1 / 228.6 / 223.2 across
the three clean runs). Warm session and preload-at-build do **not** reduce it. So the dominant cost is intrinsic
to the taint batch, not graph I/O.
3. **Graph-load is cheap — it is NOT the wall.** The `dominance` query is a full cold query *including*
3. Graph-load is cheap and does not account for the delay. The `dominance` query is a full cold query *including*
`importCpg`, and it costs only ~35 s. So `importCpg` is tens of seconds, not ~150 s. **This corrects the earlier
note** that attributed the ~150 s fixed to "first query JVM-start + graph-load + census." The ~160 s fixed lives
inside `taint.sc`'s own per-batch flow work (seed/sink memo fill over the distinct `(family, file)` combinations
it walks), paid lazily as the first pairs process — independent of the raw pair count.
it walks). It is paid lazily as the first pairs are processed, independent of the raw pair count.
4. **The warm session is not the lever.** It starts fine on a clean host (the contended `session_startup_timeout`
was contention-only), but gives ~no benefit here: subsequent queries (dominance) are already cheap disposable,
and the evidence pass is a single batch call, so there is nothing for the session to amortise.
5. **The barrier, restated:** `build(~30) + evidence(~225) ≈ 255 s` of a 300 s budget, so 1009/1365 regions defer
as `deadline_exhausted`; only 356 are analysed. The lever is **reducing the taint batch's work** — change-scope
the pair/family set so the batch fits budget — NOT session, preload, or a bigger JVM. The parked branch
5. The barrier, restated: `build(~30) + evidence(~225) ≈ 255 s` of a 300 s budget, so 1009/1365 regions defer
as `deadline_exhausted`; only 356 are analysed. The fix is to **reduce the taint batch's work** by scoping
the pair/family set to the change so the batch fits the budget. Session reuse, preload, or a bigger JVM will not do this. The parked branch
(`engine-change-scoped-evidence-pass`) is therefore **relevant after all, on a clean host**, provided it scopes
the family/file set `taint.sc` walks (not merely the pair list); its adaptive portioning still needs replacing
with a fixed cap (per-call-fixed cost, not per-pair).
6. **Side note:** the `base`-side CPG build failed (`cpg_build_failed`, 0.9 s) in the preload run — a separate
6. Side note: the `base`-side CPG build failed (`cpg_build_failed`, 0.9 s) in the preload run, a separate
intermittent base-revision build issue; the `head` side built and analysed normally. Track separately.
**What E1/E2 did NOT answer (the real G2 question):** on a clean host the engine selects 356 regions — *does it
CATCH vulns regex misses?* That needs an **engine-on unseen pilot** (a handful of pool repos replayed with the
engine arm enabled on a clean host) scored against record 07's regex-only floor (catch 3/92). That is the decisive
E1/E2 did not answer the G2 question: does the engine catch vulnerabilities regex misses when it selects 356 regions
on a clean host? That needs an **engine-on unseen pilot** (a handful of pool repos replayed with the
engine arm enabled on a clean host) scored against record 07's regex-only floor (catch 3/92). That is the
next experiment, ahead of E3/E4/L1/L2.
## ENGINE-ON PILOT RESULTS (measured 2026-10-12, CLEAN host, 5 public pool repos, vuln change each, 300 s)
Five public repos picked for flow-shaped families and small size (engine's best chance to finish and catch):
Five public repos were picked for flow-shaped families and small size, giving the engine its best chance to finish and catch:
| repo | fam | size | REGEX on vuln | ENGINE finding | cov | vuln region ranked | best taint | selected/deferred | wall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
@@ -229,70 +229,70 @@ Five public repos picked for flow-shaped families and small size (engine's best
| aws/bedrock-agentcore | injection | 3f | ✗ | **none** | incomplete | yes | — | 356 / 1009 | 305 s |
| miguelgrinberg/python-socketio | deser | 10f | **✓ (n=2)** | **none** | incomplete | yes | **tier1 score2.0 sink found** | 136 / **0** | 257 s |
**Result: regex 1/5, engine 0/5.** On a clean host, with budget to spare on most, the shipped engine **added no
Result: regex 1/5, engine 0/5. On a clean host, with budget to spare on most, the shipped engine **added no
catches over the regex floor.**
**Why (measured, traced — CORRECTED after inspecting `head.findings`, not ranker evidence):**
1. **The budget hypothesis is REFUTED.** banks, graphiti and socketio **finished their region queue** (deferred=0)
The diagnosis was corrected after inspecting `head.findings` rather than ranker evidence:
1. The budget hypothesis is refuted. banks, graphiti and socketio **finished their region queue** (deferred=0)
and still emitted no finding. Change-scoping to fit budget would not have changed the outcome.
2. **The engine produced ZERO vuln-family findings (path/injection/deser) on all 5.** Actual `head.findings`:
2. The engine produced no vuln-family findings (path/injection/deser) on any of the 5. Actual `head.findings`:
banks 1 (config_secrets), socketio 2 (config_secrets), launch-editor / graphiti / bedrock **0 findings each**.
The dataflow/taint tier traced **no source→sink flow** for the vuln families (`taint_evidence_not_applicable`;
e.g. banks found the `path.open` sink but **no source reaches it**). **Correction:** the tier=1 / score=2.0
"sink" seen in the ranker's `normalized_evidence` is the RANKER's static sink candidate, NOT a confirmed taint
finding — an earlier draft of this section misread it as detection partially working. It was not.
3. **`ambiguous_line_correspondence` is a downstream RED HERRING for these vulns.** It fires on all 5, but there
e.g. banks found the `path.open` sink but **no source reaches it**). Correction: the tier=1 / score=2.0
"sink" seen in the ranker's `normalized_evidence` is the ranker's static sink candidate, not a confirmed taint
finding. An earlier draft of this section misread it as detection partially working. It was not.
3. `ambiguous_line_correspondence` does not explain these missed vulnerabilities. It fires on all 5, but there
are **no vuln-family findings to anchor**, so a region-level witness fallback (the proposed "Option A") would
change nothing here. Witness/anchoring only touched the config_secrets findings that did appear.
4. **The LLM adjudication tier was DISABLED** (`model_calls=0`, `cost_usd=0`, `model_assistance={}` on all 5). The
4. **The LLM adjudication tier was disabled** (`model_calls=0`, `cost_usd=0`, `model_assistance={}` on all 5). The
rungs reached: `suspicion=0, model_corroborated=0, model_entailed=0–2, execution_confirmed=0`. The tier designed
to confirm a vuln the static dataflow cannot trace **never ran**.
5. **Ranking also under-promotes the vuln region** (tier 0 for most families; banks path family stuck low). So even
where a sink exists, the region is not analysed deeply enough to attempt a flow.
6. **Measurement caveat:** the pool's SZZ last-writer change definition yields large/moved diffs; a cleaner probe
6. The pool's SZZ last-writer change definition yields large/moved diffs; a cleaner probe
uses tight vuln-introducing diffs. Secondary to (2)/(4).
**Reprioritised engine levers (CORRECTED — anchoring is NOT the lever):**
- **#1 the LLM adjudication tier (disabled in the push path) — now the primary lever.** regex+dataflow = 1/5 with
the model OFF; the static tiers produce no vuln-family findings on these shapes. The product thesis
([[search-with-proof]]) is that the LLM tier catches what regex+dataflow miss. The pilot is the empirical case to
turn it on: **L1** model latency + calls/push, **L2** recall LIFT on the same 5 (and beyond). Costs money — stage
it (5–10 sizing → ~10–20 pilot → full only on lift).
Reprioritised engine levers (corrected, anchoring is not the lever):
- #1: the LLM adjudication tier (disabled in the push path) has the highest priority. regex+dataflow = 1/5 with
the model OFF; the static tiers produce no vuln-family findings on these shapes. The hypothesis
([[search-with-proof]]) is that the LLM tier catches what regex+dataflow miss. The pilot supports
testing it: **L1** model latency + calls/push, **L2** recall lift on the same 5 (and beyond). These calls cost money, so stage
them (5–10 sizing → ~10–20 pilot → full only on lift).
- **#2 taint source/sink coverage + region ranking** so the dataflow recognises these vuln sources and promotes the
vuln region (banks path: sink found, source unrecognised; graphiti injection: score 0).
- **#3 change-anchoring robustness** — real, but only matters AFTER the static/LLM tiers produce vuln-family
- #3 change-anchoring robustness matters only after the static/LLM tiers produce vuln-family
findings to anchor. Deprioritised until (1)/(2) yield findings.
**Release read:** the pre-push net is NOT releasable on detection. Clean host, generous budget, LLM off: regex 1/5,
engine 0/5. The static tiers (regex + Joern dataflow) do not detect these unseen vulns; the decisive untested lever
is the **LLM adjudication tier**. Next: an **LLM-tier pilot (L1/L2)** on these 5 repos — does enabling the model
produce vuln-family findings regex+dataflow miss, and at what $/latency.
Detection does not meet the pre-push net's release requirements. Clean host, generous budget, LLM off: regex 1/5,
engine 0/5. The static tiers (regex + Joern dataflow) do not detect these unseen vulns; the untested lever
is the **LLM adjudication tier**. Next, run an **LLM-tier pilot (L1/L2)** on these 5 repos to test whether the model
produces vuln-family findings regex+dataflow miss, and measure its $/latency.
## ROOT CAUSE of engine 0/5 + the "#2 guided by #1" workstream (2026-10-12)
**Why the taint tier traced no flow (verified in code + evidence):** the pilot repos are **libraries**, whose
Code and evidence show why the taint tier traced no flow. The pilot repos are **libraries**, whose
untrusted input arrives as **public-API function parameters**, not HTTP requests. The Python taint **source**
vocabulary (`ruleset/semantic/python.toml`) is entirely web/CLI: Flask/Django `request.*`, `sys.argv`, `sys.stdin`,
`input(`. There is no source for a library's own API parameter. The engine *does* have a parameter-as-source mode
(`_parameters_are_input`, `scan.py`), but it fires **only for recognised entry points** (`_is_entry_point` and
`entry_kind != "function"`) — the pilot vuln regions carry `entry:false`, so their parameters are **deliberately
`entry_kind != "function"`). The pilot vuln regions carry `entry:false`, so their parameters are **deliberately
not** sources. That restriction is intentional: treating every function parameter as a source caused a flood of
false SQL-injections on WordPress/PMPro (documented in the `_parameters_are_input` docstring). So **the static
engine cannot safely widen its sources to library APIs without reintroducing that false-alarm explosion** —
`banks` path: sink `path.open` found, `source_local/near=false`; `graphiti`/`bedrock` injection: no source.
false SQL-injections on WordPress/PMPro (documented in the `_parameters_are_input` docstring). The static
engine cannot safely widen its sources to library APIs without reintroducing those false alarms.
For `banks` path: sink `path.open` found, `source_local/near=false`; `graphiti`/`bedrock` injection: no source.
**This is the precise seam for the maintainer's "#2 guided by #1" directive.** The static taint cannot *safely*
The maintainer's "#2 guided by #1" directive addresses this gap. Static taint cannot *safely*
decide which library parameters are trust boundaries; the **LLM can** reason about which public-API surface is
attacker-reachable (intent, not pattern). So:
- **#1 (LLM) guides:** on a changed library region the engine ranks but cannot source, the LLM adjudicates whether a
- #1 (LLM) guides: on a changed library region the engine ranks but cannot source, the LLM adjudicates whether a
parameter is an untrusted trust boundary and names the source→sink it believes exists (search-with-proof).
- **#2 (taint) traces + proves:** the engine then runs the flow from the LLM-named source to the known sink,
confirming (or refuting) with a traced path — a proof, not the LLM's say-so. Net: catch without the static FP
blowup, and every catch carries a dataflow witness.
- **Feedback:** where the LLM repeatedly names the same source shape (e.g. a registry-key → path family), promote it
- #2 (taint) traces + proves: the engine then runs the flow from the LLM-named source to the known sink,
confirming or refuting it with a traced path. The trace provides proof beyond the LLM's judgment. This would avoid the static FP
increase while giving every catch a dataflow witness.
- Where the LLM repeatedly names the same source shape (e.g. a registry-key → path family), promote it
to a static fact in `python.toml` guarded by the entry/shape conditions that keep WordPress quiet.
**Proposed first increment (pending budget confirmation — LLM calls cost money):** wire the disabled LLM tier on the
Proposed first increment (pending budget confirmation, LLM calls cost money): wire the disabled LLM tier on the
5 pilot regions in *LLM-guided-source* mode and measure: (a) does it name the right trust-boundary source per vuln,
(b) does the taint engine then trace source→sink and emit a vuln-family finding, (c) catch lift over regex (1/5) and
false-alarm cost on the ordinary changes. Stage it (5–10 sizing → ~10–20 → full on lift). This makes "#2 guided by
@@ -303,79 +303,78 @@ yields findings.
Sized the LLM tier on banks (the clearest pilot miss) with the project's own DeepSeek client (`deepseek-flash`).
**Infra + cost (sizing answer):** DeepSeek reachable, model id `deepseek-flash` valid. **~$0.00016–0.00025 per
call, ~1.1 s latency.** Sub-cent per push even at 8 candidates × a few regions. The GLM/abliteration fallback
(`ABLITERATION_*`) currently errors `HTTP 422` on the `thinking` request param — a client fix (don't send
DeepSeek is reachable, and model id `deepseek-flash` is valid. **~$0.00016–0.00025 per
call, ~1.1 s latency.** This costs less than a cent per push even at 8 candidates × a few regions. The GLM/abliteration fallback
(`ABLITERATION_*`) currently errors `HTTP 422` on the `thinking` request param. A client fix (don't send
`thinking` to that endpoint) is needed before it can be used; DeepSeek works today so it is not blocking.
**"2 guided by 1" validated as a mechanism — the LLM gives the correct verdict WHEN given the real sink + source
context:**
- Asked about `_load` (the pool's SZZ-labelled site, 135–141): `vulnerable=false` — *correct*, `_load` reconstructs
"2 guided by 1" works in this case: the LLM gives the correct verdict when given the real sink + source
context:
- For `_load` (the pool's SZZ-labelled site, 135–141), the model returned `vulnerable=false`. This is correct: `_load` reconstructs
paths from its own index, not the sink.
- Asked about the REAL sink `from_prompt_path`/`set()` line 44 (`path / f"{prompt.name}…"; write_text`) with the
context that `prompt.name` can be request-derived: **`vulnerable=true`** — *"prompt.name is joined into a
filesystem path and written without sanitization… path traversal or arbitrary file write."* A correct catch.
- Asked about the real sink `from_prompt_path`/`set()` line 44 (`path / f"{prompt.name}…"; write_text`) with the
context that `prompt.name` can be request-derived: **`vulnerable=true`**, *"prompt.name is joined into a
filesystem path and written without sanitization… path traversal or arbitrary file write."* This is a correct catch.
**Two blockers to realising it in the live pipeline (both now concrete):**
Two blockers to realising it in the live pipeline (both now concrete):
1. **Context, not single-shot.** The model only catches with the real sink + caller/source context. A single-shot
question on the ranker's region (which pointed at `_load`, and at the benign local-glob `_scan`) does not. This
requires the **agentic search-with-proof hunter** (explores callers/entry points to establish the trust
boundary), not the single CANDIDATE_QUESTION path. That is more calls → the real cost driver to size next.
2. **Corpus-label soundness.** The pool's banks label is **mislocated**: `head_lines=[[30],[104],[138–141]]`,
`function=_load` — the real sink is line **44**, outside head_lines±10 and a different function. So (a) even a
correct finding at line 44 would NOT score as a catch under `location_match`, and (b) the sink pre-exists in base
(the change did not touch it), so a change-scoped pre-push hook **correctly stays quiet** — the pool even
boundary), not the single CANDIDATE_QUESTION path. That needs more calls → their cost is the next measurement.
2. **Corpus-label soundness.** The pool's banks label is mislocated: `head_lines=[[30],[104],[138–141]]`,
`function=_load`. The real sink is line **44**, outside head_lines±10 and a different function. So (a) even a
correct finding at line 44 would not score as a catch under `location_match`, and (b) the sink pre-exists in base
(the change did not touch it), so a change-scoped pre-push hook **correctly stays quiet**. The pool even
annotates this bias ("delta hook can correctly stay quiet"). **Part of the pilot's engine 0/5 is this SZZ
mislocation, not a detection failure.**
**Revised next steps (budget approved, stay staged):**
The budget is approved. Keep the revised next steps staged:
- **Validate the 5 pilot labels first** (cheap, LLM-assisted corpus audit): for each, is the real sink inside the
changed lines, and is it change-introduced vs pre-existing-in-base? Only sound, change-located vulns are fair
targets. This separates true detection gaps from SZZ artifacts before spending on detection runs.
- **Then run the AGENTIC hunter** (search-with-proof) on the sound targets and size its per-vuln call count/cost;
- **Then run the agentic hunter** (search-with-proof) on the sound targets and size its per-vuln call count/cost;
measure catch + false-alarm (on ordinary changes) vs regex 1/5. The single-shot path is insufficient; the hunter
is the real "#1".
- Feed confirmed source shapes (e.g. library param → path join) back as guarded static facts (#2).
## Prompt evolution is a CORE lever for the LLM arm (maintainer directive 2026-10-12)
**"What is key is that we evolve the prompts as well"** — and **"GEPA or comparable; this is an evolving field."**
The bedrock hunter result makes this concrete: the agentic hunter ran (64 model calls, $0.0076) and reasoned
carefully, but with its **current prompts** it flagged adjacent concerns (network-PUBLIC default, download_file)
and never named the actual `install_packages` command injection — a *prompting/targeting* miss, not a cost or
capability limit. So the LLM arm needs a **prompt-optimisation loop** that reflects on misses/low-confidence
outputs, evolves the prompt, and retries — built on **DSPy** (its GEPA / MIPRO optimisers), kept **pluggable**
behind an interface because the field moves fast (GEPA, MIPRO, TextGrad, successors). This aligns with
[[learned-decisions-not-hand-tuning]] (learned decisions + local memory, not hand rules). It applies to BOTH LLM
uses here — the search-with-proof detector and the corpus-label auditor.
**"What is key is that we evolve the prompts as well"**, and **"GEPA or comparable; this is an evolving field."**
The bedrock hunter ran (64 model calls, $0.0076), but its **current prompts** led it to flag adjacent concerns
(network-PUBLIC default, download_file). It never named the `install_packages` command injection. This was a
*prompting/targeting* miss, rather than a cost or capability limit. So the LLM arm needs a **prompt-optimisation loop** that reflects on misses/low-confidence
outputs, updates the prompt, and retries. Build it on **DSPy** (its GEPA / MIPRO optimisers). Keep it **pluggable**
behind an interface because the field changes quickly (GEPA, MIPRO, TextGrad, successors). This aligns with
[[learned-decisions-not-hand-tuning]] (learned decisions + local memory, not hand rules). It applies to both LLM
uses here: the search-with-proof detector and the corpus-label auditor.
**The optimisation objective is to learn WHAT HINTS/ANNOTATIONS the model needs** to reach the real sink — not
just reword the prompt. bedrock needed the hint "`install_packages` runs `pip install` with caller-supplied package
The optimisation must learn which hints/annotations the model needs to reach the real sink. Rewording the
prompt alone is insufficient. bedrock needed the hint "`install_packages` runs `pip install` with caller-supplied package
names → command injection"; banks needed "`prompt.name` is request-derived and joined into a filesystem path →
traversal". DSPy optimises which evidence/hints to feed the signature so the model targets the true sink instead of
adjacent noise.
**Source those hints from the framework knowledge the project ALREADY ships** — the semantic facts taxonomy
(`ruleset/semantic/*.toml`, `ruleset/frameworks.toml`) encodes sources/sinks/sanitizers per framework WITHOUT
Use the project's existing framework knowledge for those hints. The semantic facts taxonomy
(`ruleset/semantic/*.toml`, `ruleset/frameworks.toml`) encodes sources/sinks/sanitizers per framework without
user annotations ([[php-detection-is-engine-only]] zero-annotation value). Where framework knowledge covers the
API, feed it as a hint; where it does not (library APIs like banks/bedrock), the LLM proposes the trust boundary
and, on repeated confirmation, it graduates into the facts (the #2 feedback loop). No new annotation burden on the
user. This is now a first-class part of the "#2 guided by #1" workstream, not a deferred nicety. (DeepSeek
API, feed it as a hint. Where it does not (library APIs like banks/bedrock), the LLM proposes the trust boundary,
which becomes a fact after repeated confirmation (the #2 feedback loop). No new annotation burden on the
user. This is now part of the "#2 guided by #1" workstream and must not be deferred. (DeepSeek
`deepseek-flash` is the working default; GLM 5.3 "cyber" model is future-spec.)
## POOL-P1 LABEL AUDIT (LLM, 2026-10-12) — 47% of labels are sound
Widened the banks label-mislocation check across all **49 public** pool vulns via DeepSeek (advisory + head code +
The banks label-location check was extended to all **49 public** pool vulns via DeepSeek (advisory + head code +
pool label → sound/unsound). Full artifact: `benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-pool-p1-label-audit/`.
- **label_sound = 23/49 (47%)**; 53% unsound (25 pre-exist in base, 16 sink outside changed lines). Cost $0.038.
- By family (sound/total): injection 10/13, access_control 5/8, untrusted_destination 4/7, deserialization 1/2,
config_secrets 1/4, **path 1/7, output_encoding 1/8**. Injection labels mostly sound; path/output_encoding mostly
mislocate or pre-exist.
- **record 07's floor (catch 3/92) is scored against a corpus ~half unfair to a delta hook** — on the ~53%
- Record 07's floor (catch 3/92) is scored against a corpus ~half unfair to a delta hook. On the ~53%
pre-existing/mislocated vulns a change-scoped hook correctly stays quiet. The honest catchable denominator is the
sound subset; record 07 needs this caveat + a sound-subset recomputation.
- **Fair pilot re-score:** only bedrock + graphiti (injection) of the 5 are sound; the engine missed both — the
real detection gaps. The 23 sound targets are the fair local eval set for "#2 guided by #1".
- Only bedrock + graphiti (injection) of the 5 pilot cases have sound labels. The engine missed both, so these
are detection gaps. The 23 sound targets are the fair local eval set for "#2 guided by #1".
- Next: run the agentic search-with-proof hunter on the sound targets (start bedrock + graphiti), size its
per-vuln call count/cost, measure catch + false-alarm. Then recompute record 07 on the sound subset.
@@ -384,13 +383,13 @@ pool label → sound/unsound). Full artifact: `benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-1
Ran `ousast scan --mode deep` (DeepSeek `deepseek-flash`, model layer + tool_hunter, 60-call/8-hotspot bound) on
bedrock + graphiti, the two sound pilot targets the static engine missed. Artifact:
`benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-hunter-sound-targets/`.
- **hunter 1/2 vs static engine 0/2.** graphiti: **HIT** — `falkordb_driver.py:207`, tag `family:cypher-injection`,
- **hunter 1/2 vs static engine 0/2.** graphiti: **HIT**, `falkordb_driver.py:207`, tag `family:cypher-injection`,
rationale traces `build_fulltext_query` concatenating user input into a Cypher string at line 278 (inside the
labelled function, location-matches). bedrock: **miss** — 12 suspicions on adjacent concerns, never named the
labelled function, location-matches). bedrock: **miss**, 12 suspicions on adjacent concerns, never named the
`install_packages`→`pip` command injection.
- **Cost is a non-issue:** ~$0.007/repo, 64 model calls for a whole-repo deep scan.
- **Everything stopped at `suspicion`** — the proof arm did not elevate to corroborated/entailed/execution_confirmed.
Release-grade BLOCK needs *proven* findings; measuring the proof arm's lift is the next depth.
- Cost is low: ~$0.007/repo, 64 model calls for a whole-repo deep scan.
- Everything stopped at `suspicion`. The proof arm did not elevate to corroborated/entailed/execution_confirmed.
Release-grade BLOCK needs *proven* findings; the next step is to measure the proof arm's lift.
- bedrock's miss is the concrete case for the DSPy prompt/hints loop above.
Next: (a) measure the proof arm (can it elevate graphiti's suspicion to proven?); (b) stand up the DSPy hint loop
@@ -399,37 +398,37 @@ run for the release-relevant shape.
## STRATEGIC PIVOT: core problem = unprovable reachability; FIX THE EVALUATION TARGET FIRST (2026-10-12)
**Core problem (named with the maintainer):** the tool can SPOT dangerous ops but cannot prove they are
ATTACKER-REACHABLE — the trust boundary lives outside the changed library code, in the caller/application a
change-scoped scan does not see; and the project rightly won't emit unproven alarms. Recall → ~0 from unprovable
reachability, not blindness. Cost/latency/engine-wall/corpus-labels were all downstream noise.
The maintainer and team identified the problem: the tool can find dangerous operations but cannot prove
an attacker can reach them. The trust boundary is outside the changed library code, in a caller/application
that a change-scoped scan does not see. The project will not emit unproven alarms. Recall → ~0 from unprovable
reachability, not blindness. Cost/latency/engine-wall/corpus-labels did not explain this problem.
**Chosen bet (of three — fix-target / advisory-with-conditions / build-prover): FIX THE EVALUATION TARGET FIRST.**
A pre-push hook runs inside a developer's APPLICATION (entry points present, request→sink in-repo), but the pool is
The chosen bet is to fix the evaluation target first. The three options were fix-target / advisory-with-conditions / build-prover.
A pre-push hook runs inside a developer's application (entry points present, request→sink in-repo), but the pool is
library-heavy, so we measured the hardest/wrong case.
**Shape classification (LLM, 49 public vulns, $0.033 — `benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-pool-p1-shape-classification/`):**
reachability_in_repo True only 12/49 (24%); 37/49 are pure libraries. A legitimate catch needs sound label AND
reachability in-repo → **5/49 (~10%)**: graphiti, desktopcommandermcp, malla, document-merge-service, mcp-remote.
**Shape predicted the hunter result** (graphiti app-shaped→caught; bedrock library→missed). So record-07's 3/92 is
scored against a ~90%-illegitimate denominator — the near-zero catch is largely a TARGET MISMATCH.
Shape classification (LLM, 49 public vulns, $0.033, `benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-pool-p1-shape-classification/`):
reachability_in_repo True only 12/49 (24%); 37/49 are pure libraries. A valid catch needs a sound label and
in-repo reachability → 5/49 (~10%): graphiti, desktopcommandermcp, malla, document-merge-service, mcp-remote.
Repository shape predicted the hunter result (graphiti app-shaped→caught; bedrock library→missed). So record-07's 3/92 is
scored against a ~90%-illegitimate denominator. The near-zero catch largely comes from a mismatch between the targets and the tool.
**Next:** deep scan (regex/engine/hunter) on the 5 fair targets → per-tier catch rate on the corrected set; then
Next: deep scan (regex/engine/hunter) on the 5 fair targets → per-tier catch rate on the corrected set; then
stand up an app-shaped eval set from known-vulnerable apps (VAmPI/NodeGoat/DjanGoat/vibe-py) and recompute the
floor. Deferred bets (advisory-with-conditions, reachability prover) revisited once the fair-target numbers land.
floor. Revisit the deferred bets (advisory-with-conditions, reachability prover) once the fair-target results are available.
## FAIR-TARGET RESULT: detection 3/5 on app-shaped+sound (vs ~0 library-heavy) — target-fix validated (2026-10-12)
Deep scan on the 5 app-shaped+sound targets (`benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-hunter-fair-targets/`):
- **3/5 detected**: graphiti (hunter, Cypher injection), mcp-remote (hunter, url-scheme injection), dcmcp (ENGINE
overlay — "outbound.request reached from parameter" on readFileFromUrl; the param-as-source mode fired because an
entry point is present). **2/5 missed**: malla (DOM/template XSS) and dms (Jinja SSTI) — both in families
families.toml DOCUMENTS as limited (template-mediated escaping).
- vs the library-heavy pilot's ~0 → **the target mismatch was real and material.** On an app-shaped repo the engine
- 3/5 detected: graphiti (hunter, Cypher injection), mcp-remote (hunter, url-scheme injection), dcmcp (ENGINE
overlay, "outbound.request reached from parameter" on readFileFromUrl; the param-as-source mode fired because an
entry point is present). 2/5 missed: malla (DOM/template XSS) and dms (Jinja SSTI), both in families
documented as limited in families.toml (template-mediated escaping).
- The library-heavy pilot found ~0 → this confirms that the target mismatch affected detection. On an app-shaped repo the engine
itself detects (parameter is a recognized source once the entry point is in-repo).
- **But everything stops at `suspicion`/`static_corroboration`** — none proven. Cost ~$0.007/repo.
- Everything stops at `suspicion`/`static_corroboration`. None are proven. Cost ~$0.007/repo.
**Strategy verdict:** bet #1 (fix the eval target) is validated as NECESSARY and MATERIAL but NOT SUFFICIENT.
Bet #1 (fix the eval target) is necessary and improves detection, but is insufficient on its own.
Detection appears on fair targets; release-grade BLOCK still needs (a) proof-arm elevation (suspicion→proven) and
(b) family coverage (template XSS/SSTI) + the DSPy hint loop for misses. Next: recompute a floor on an app-shaped
sound subset / real app corpus (VAmPI, NodeGoat, DjanGoat, vibe-py), and measure the proof arm's suspicion→proven lift.
@@ -438,53 +437,53 @@ sound subset / real app corpus (VAmPI, NodeGoat, DjanGoat, vibe-py), and measure
Measured whether the proof arm can elevate the 3 fair-target suspicions (graphiti, mcp-remote, dcmcp) to
`exploit_demonstrated`.
- **Correction:** the search arm's `FAMILY_ORACLES` (search/demo.py) differs from families.toml's `verifier`.
All 3 hits HAVE a runtime oracle: injection→(sql,command), untrusted_destination→(ssrf). (deserialization/
access_control/config_secrets have NONE — empty tuple → `no_oracle`.) So dcmcp IS provable in principle
- The search arm's `FAMILY_ORACLES` (search/demo.py) differs from families.toml's `verifier`.
All 3 hits have a runtime oracle: injection→(sql,command), untrusted_destination→(ssrf). (deserialization/
access_control/config_secrets have none, empty tuple → `no_oracle`.) So dcmcp is provable in principle
(earlier "unprovable" was a families.toml misread).
- **But proving is a runtime differential:** `search/verify.verify()` requires (1) an AUTHORED declarative demo
- Runtime differential proof through `search/verify.verify()` requires (1) an authored declarative demo
(start the app on a port, run exploit steps, fill oracle placeholders: sql→database_path, command→marker_dir,
ssrf→callback_url), (2) BOTH head AND base runnable with OFFLINE deps (`pip --no-index`, `npm ci --offline`),
ssrf→callback_url), (2) both head and base runnable with offline deps (`pip --no-index`, `npm ci --offline`),
(3) a sandbox differential "owned effect in 3/3 affected runs and 0/3 safe runs". Local host has a sandbox
(`isolation_mode: userns`); the plane supplies a task-boundary dispatcher.
- **The scan/push path reaches only `suspicion`/`static_corroboration`** (verification.py levels) — there is NO code
- The scan/push path reaches only `suspicion`/`static_corroboration` (verification.py levels). There is no code
path from a scan suspicion to `exploit_demonstrated`, and no caller wires the search Coordinator from the push
flow. So **proof-arm lift at push time = 0/3**: not because the vulns are unreal, but because proving is a
per-target, offline-build, runtime, differential operation that cannot run inside a pre-push hook. (Prior
per-pair demo attempts were mostly inconclusive on this exact wiring — app startup, offline deps, oracle plumbing.)
flow. So proof-arm lift at push time = 0/3: not because the vulns are unreal, but because proving is a
runtime differential operation with an offline build for each target that cannot run inside a pre-push hook. (Prior
per-pair demo attempts were mostly inconclusive on this exact wiring, app startup, offline deps, oracle plumbing.)
**Strategic consequence (resolves the three-bet fork):** proof/BLOCK is an ASYNC capability (CI / plane / triage
with authored demos + a runnable sandbox), NOT a pre-push one. At push time the honest ceiling is corroborated
suspicion. So:
- **Bet #2 (advisory-with-conditions) is the honest PRE-PUSH product**: surface corroborated suspicions ("change
This resolves the three-bet choice. Proof/BLOCK runs asynchronously (CI / plane / triage
with authored demos + a runnable sandbox). At push time, the strongest available evidence is corroborated
suspicion:
- Bet #2 (advisory-with-conditions) is the honest PRE-PUSH product: surface corroborated suspicions ("change
introduces a flow that looks like X; reachable if untrusted Y reaches it"), let the dev / coding-agent (who has
the app context) judge — matching the "oversee coding agents" framing and the suspicion-rung reality.
- **Bet #3 (the proof arm) is the ASYNC BLOCK lane**: run `search/verify` on the plane/CI for the suspicions worth
proving, with authored (eventually DSPy-authored) demos. Worth an empirical run on one tractable target
(mcp-remote) to confirm the arm demonstrates on a real unseen vuln — a bounded, separate effort.
the app context) judge. This matches the "oversee coding agents" purpose and the evidence available at the suspicion rung.
- Bet #3 (the proof arm) is the ASYNC BLOCK lane: run `search/verify` on the plane/CI for the suspicions worth
proving, with authored (eventually DSPy-authored) demos. Run a bounded, separate test on one tractable target
(mcp-remote) to confirm that the arm demonstrates a real unseen vuln.
## BANKS FIXED-SEARCH MVP (2026-10-12) — "no wrong targets, only wrong searching" demonstrated
Record: `benchmarks/measurements/2026-10-12-banks-fixed-search-mvp/`. Target: banks (the "library" that gave
the engine ZERO path findings in the pilot). Same target, same CPG — only the search changes.
no engine path findings in the pilot). The target and CPG are unchanged; only the search changes.
- Injected the two annotations a per-target LLM steer would supply: **parameter-as-source**
(`parameter_sources=True`, so `prompt.name` counts as untrusted) + the **missing file-write sink**
(`write_text`/`read_text` added to path sinks).
- **Baseline (shipped search): 0 resolved `prompt → write_text` flows** — its 5 flow rows are all census/
- The shipped search baseline resolved 0 `prompt → write_text` flows. Its 5 flow rows are all census/
evidence (`sink=None`), matching the pilot's zero path findings.
- **Fixed search: the engine resolves `prompt → path-join → prompt_file.write_text(prompt.raw)` in
`from_prompt_path`** (`source=prompt`), plus a second `write_text` sink in `_scan`. These appear ONLY with
- Fixed search: the engine resolves `prompt → path-join → prompt_file.write_text(prompt.raw)` in
`from_prompt_path` (`source=prompt`), plus a second `write_text` sink in `_scan`. These appear only with
the annotations.
- **Thesis demonstrated on a concrete case:** banks was not a wrong target; the search was unannotated. The
fix needed exactly **two** inputs — the param-source and the file-write sink — which are precisely what the
- The banks result supports the hypothesis: the target was valid, but the search lacked annotations. The
fix needed exactly **two** inputs: the param-source and the file-write sink. These are what the
per-target LLM steer (DSPy-optimised, framework-seeded) has to learn to supply. This is the first measured
instance of the "#2 guided by #1" loop closing on an unseen target.
- Caveats: (1) one row shows `source=path` not `prompt` — the param-source fires broadly, a precision knob for
the steering loop; (2) this is a TRACE, not the runtime differential proof (proof stays the async BLOCK lane).
instance of a complete "#2 guided by #1" loop on an unseen target.
- Caveats: (1) one row shows `source=path` not `prompt`, the param-source fires broadly, the steering loop needs to control that breadth to improve
precision; (2) this is a trace, not the runtime differential proof (proof stays the async BLOCK lane).
**Instrument note / filed bug:** the first MVP used the single-query `cpg.run("taint", …)` path and returned
0/0 — an INSTRUMENT FAILURE, not a result (`cpg query taint failed` on every query). Root cause filed in
The first MVP used the single-query `cpg.run("taint", …)` path and returned
0/0 because of an instrument failure, rather than producing a valid result (`cpg query taint failed` on every query). Root cause filed in
`bugs/taint-sc-single-query-signature-skew.md`: `request_params()` emits 5 keys (`guards`, `fixedOrigin`,
`originAnchors`, `quotedSanitizers`, `fieldParameterSources`) that `taint.sc`'s `exec` signature does not
declare, so both single-query sub-routes (CLI `--param` and session named-arg) reject them. The batch path
@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
# Valid detection benchmark
Created 2026-10-12. This brief **supersedes the frozen-SZZ-pool evaluation** (`unseen-repo-evaluation`), which is retired.
SZZ guessed its labels and placed the vulnerability in the wrong location about half the time (audit: path 1/7,
output-encoding 1/8 sound). Also, ~76% of entries are library-internal (reachability not in-repo). Catch /
false-alarm numbers from that pool are not valid benchmark results. This brief defines a benchmark with
sound ground truth and metrics that engineers and managers can understand.
## The two questions the benchmark answers
A pre-push security check must answer two questions:
1. **If I'm about to push a real vulnerability, does it stop me?**
2. **If my change is fine, does it leave me alone?**
The benchmark runs the **whole tool** as a developer uses it at push time. Quick rules and the engine are on,
as is the LLM-guided arm. The repositories are ones the tool has **never seen**.
## What makes the data valid
### Positive cases — "should catch" (real, verified, reachable vulnerabilities)
- Take the label from the security fix, never from SZZ. Use the code *just before* the fix, at the file/function
the fix changed. The fix establishes the vulnerability location without a blame walk-back or mislocation.
- Keep only app-shaped cases where the vulnerability is reachable from an entry point *inside the repo*. This
can be a web route or a request handler; a CLI argument also qualifies. Drop library-internal vulnerabilities
that depend on a caller outside the repo. A pre-push tool cannot see that trust boundary, so scoring it is unfair.
- Verify each case through LLM adjudication and a human spot-check. Confirm (a) that the pre-fix code is
vulnerable and (b) that the fix addresses it. Also confirm (c) that it is reachable in-repo.
### Negative cases — "should not alarm" (ordinary safe changes)
- Use everyday commits from the **same** application repositories that are not security fixes. They are plentiful
and cheap to collect. Almost every real push is ordinary, so false alarms determine whether developers keep
using the tool. The negative set must be much larger than the positive set.
### Held out
- None of these repositories were used to build, train, tune, mine or harvest the tool.
A few dozen vulnerabilities with sound labels and in-repo reachability, each verified, are better than hundreds
of SZZ guesses. SZZ is wrong about half the time. Curating this set takes manual work, supported by the LLM-audit
tooling that found the SZZ pool's defects. Dozens of good cases are enough.
## Metrics someone understands
| Metric | Plain-English question | Example |
|---|---|---|
| **Catch rate** (recall) | Of real vulnerabilities, how many did it flag? | "Caught 18 of 20 (90%)" |
| **False-alarm rate** | On safe changes, how often does it cry wolf? | "Flagged 3 of 100 ordinary pushes" |
| **Precision** | When it alarms, how often is it real? | "When it speaks up, it's right 8 of 10 times" |
| **Proof rate** | Of what it flags, how much can it *demonstrate*, not just suspect? | "12 of 18 catches came with a working demonstration" |
Report false alarms as **"per 100 pushes"**, which reflects a developer's experience. Vulnerabilities are rare
among real pushes. Precision depends on that ratio, so a 50/50 test set overstates it.
Report the first two metrics together:
> "On unseen application repos: catches 90% of real vulnerabilities while false-alarming on 3% of ordinary
> pushes."
This wording is easier for a manager to understand than "3/92, Wilson95 1.1–9.2%".
## The gold-standard metric — and the project's edge
**Proved catches** do not depend on labels. The search-with-proof / differential-exploit arm demonstrates the
bad effect on the vulnerable code and its absence on the fixed code. The demonstration *is* the ground truth.
The headline to aim for is:
> "On unseen app repos: caught and *proved* N of M real vulnerabilities, with K false alarms per 100 ordinary
> pushes."
The architecture is built to produce this kind of benchmark.
## Why the old approach was not feasible (recorded so it is not re-tried)
- SZZ ground truth is machine-guessed and ~half wrong → every catch/FP number off it is noise.
- Library-heavy corpus → most cases are unreachable in-repo, so a pre-push tool is scored on things it
structurally cannot see.
- Scoring regex-only (engine and LLM off) measured a tier nobody would ship alone.
- Automated harvesting prioritized pool size over sound ground truth and in-repo reachability.
## Open questions for the spec phase
- How many verified positives are enough for a credible catch-rate interval (target set size)?
- The negative:positive ratio that reflects real push traffic (for an honest false-alarms-per-100-pushes).
- Curation workflow: how LLM adjudication + human spot-check are recorded and frozen per case.
- Language/framework coverage of the positive set (be explicit about what is and isn't represented).