exp-003: result -- inconclusive, no BLOCK rule flags a held-out unit

Zero-cost replay of the six slice-2 programs: meter 0 client calls, $0.0;
211 of 353 units scored, 142 excluded for an uncached response (path lost
all 39). Arm A (calibrated) fails calibration (ECE 0.077 access control,
0.1067 injection); arm B (Wilson LB >= 0.95, nested) chooses no threshold on
any fold, as the registration's power note predicted (73 clean flags needed,
38 paired injection positives); secondary arm C flags nothing either. The
instrument check shows real scores; the zero is the rule's.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
This commit is contained in:
Marius Ciepluch
2026-10-03 08:15:22 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5.5
parent 7bb97ad0bc
commit b31c85678f
3 changed files with 1029 additions and 2 deletions
@@ -35,5 +35,5 @@
"decision_rule": "REJECT B if in any family B flags held-out paired units at a point precision < 0.95; else ADOPT B if in some family B's held-out paired Wilson LB >= 0.95; else INCONCLUSIVE (the incumbent rule stays)",
"m4_reading": "a family reaches the M4 precision bar on held-out repositories when its held-out paired Wilson LB >= 0.95; point precision reported beside it",
"power": "a Wilson LB of 0.95 needs >= 73 flagged units with no false flag; the largest family holds 38 paired positives over all five folds, so arm B cannot offer a BLOCK in any family by construction; expected verdict inconclusive",
"status": "registered; not run"
"status": "run and analysed 2026-10-03: inconclusive -- no arm flags any held-out unit (result.json); meter 0 client calls, $0.0; 142 of 353 units excluded for an uncached response"
}