learn: exp-004 run -- inconclusive, no pooled t_block; fill \$1.24 of a \$2 ceiling, replay \$0; instrument check recorded

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
This commit is contained in:
Marius Ciepluch
2026-10-03 14:18:17 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5.5
parent 90a2642019
commit b50f7afccb
3 changed files with 939 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
"""Instrument check for exp-004: are the scores real, and how clean is the pooled top of the ranking?"""
import json, collections
from pathlib import Path
from openultrasast.config import load_dotenv
load_dotenv(Path(".env"))
from openultrasast.plane.memory import open_store
from openultrasast.learn import experiments as ex
store = open_store(None)
rows = [r.row for r in store.rows(repo=ex.experiment_repo("exp-004-pooled-block-gate"), kind="arm_outcome")]
units = {json.loads(l)["unit"]: json.loads(l) for l in open("plane/experiments/exp-004-pooled-block-gate.units.jsonl")}
print("arm_outcome rows", len(rows), "units file", len(units))
r0 = rows[0]; print("row keys", sorted(r0)[:30])
print("decision example", json.dumps(r0.get("decision"))[:300])
def score(r):
d = r.get("decision") or {}
return r.get("s"), r.get("verdict", "unsure" if r.get("s") is None else "")
fam = collections.defaultdict(list)
for r in rows:
u = units.get(r.get("unit"))
if not u: continue
p, v = score(r)
fam[u["family"]].append((p, v, u["label"], u.get("pair")))
for f, xs in sorted(fam.items()):
ps = [x for x in xs if x[0] is not None]
distinct = len({round(x[0], 4) for x in ps})
unsure = sum(1 for x in xs if x[1] == "unsure")
pairs = collections.defaultdict(dict)
for p, v, y, pr in xs:
if pr and p is not None: pairs[pr][y] = p
full = [d for d in pairs.values() if 0 in d and 1 in d]
wins = sum(1 for d in full if d[1] > d[0]); ties = sum(1 for d in full if d[1] == d[0])
top = sorted([x for x in ps if x[3]], key=lambda x: -x[0])
first_neg = next((i for i, x in enumerate(top) if x[2] == 0), len(top))
print(f"{f}: n={len(xs)} distinct_scores={distinct} unsure={unsure} pairs={len(full)} within_pair_win={wins} tie={ties} pos_above_first_neg={first_neg}")
allp = sorted([x for xs in fam.values() for x in xs if x[0] is not None and x[3]], key=lambda x: -x[0])
print("pooled raw top-30 labels:", "".join(str(x[2]) for x in allp[:30]))
@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
{
"experiment": "exp-004-pooled-block-gate",
"date": "2026-10-03",
"fill": {
"client_calls": 2073,
"usd": 1.238223,
"ceiling_usd": 2.0,
"still_missing": 0,
"dry_run_estimate_usd": 5.582,
"note": "the dry-run estimator over-priced 4.5x (no prompt-cache pricing); measured spend is the meter's"
},
"run": {
"units": 501,
"client_calls": 0,
"usd": 0.0,
"replayed": 2509,
"replay_miss": 0
},
"verdict": "inconclusive",
"reason": "no t_block on any outer fold, pooled or per family; B offers no BLOCK",
"instrument_check": {
"per_family": {
"access_control": {
"n": 66,
"distinct_scores": 41,
"unsure": 5,
"pairs": 28,
"within_pair_wins": 22,
"ties": 1,
"positives_above_first_negative": 12
},
"deserialization": {
"n": 64,
"distinct_scores": 38,
"unsure": 7,
"pairs": 25,
"within_pair_wins": 18,
"ties": 4,
"positives_above_first_negative": 5
},
"injection": {
"n": 149,
"distinct_scores": 52,
"unsure": 54,
"pairs": 53,
"within_pair_wins": 30,
"ties": 17,
"positives_above_first_negative": 6
},
"output_encoding": {
"n": 69,
"distinct_scores": 31,
"unsure": 32,
"pairs": 28,
"within_pair_wins": 18,
"ties": 6,
"positives_above_first_negative": 2
},
"path": {
"n": 66,
"distinct_scores": 43,
"unsure": 15,
"pairs": 29,
"within_pair_wins": 25,
"ties": 3,
"positives_above_first_negative": 13
},
"untrusted_destination": {
"n": 87,
"distinct_scores": 36,
"unsure": 33,
"pairs": 32,
"within_pair_wins": 18,
"ties": 4,
"positives_above_first_negative": 3
}
},
"pooled_raw_top30_labels": "111111111110111110111111110111",
"reading": "scores are real (31-52 distinct values per family); pooled raw top 30 holds 27 positives (0.90), first negative at rank 12; the Wilson bound needs >= 73 flags with no error, so precision at the top, not data volume alone, now binds"
}
}
@@ -0,0 +1,822 @@
{
"arms": {
"A": {
"label": "today's rule -- Platt map cross-fitted per family, BLOCK only when the calibration check holds, BLOCK point nested on the other folds' calibrated p",
"rule": {
"name": "calibrated_block"
}
},
"B": {
"label": "pooled gate -- one t_block over all families on a per-family Platt score (training folds, inner cross-fit), t_quiet per family at 90% recall, family floor 10 clean held-out flags",
"rule": {
"floor": 10,
"name": "pooled_block_gate",
"normalise": "platt",
"precision": 0.95,
"recall": 0.9,
"select_on": "paired"
}
}
},
"code_commit": "90a2642019df414cb67b5dcea6e4ec235f35650a",
"decision": "inconclusive",
"experiment": "exp-004-pooled-block-gate",
"families": {
"access_control": {
"A": {
"calibration_holds": false,
"ece": 0.0715,
"paired": {
"coverage": 0.0,
"flagged": 0,
"flagged_precision": null,
"flagged_precision_ci": null,
"flagged_precision_lb": null,
"groups": 28,
"meets_target_lb": false,
"meets_target_point": false,
"positives": 28,
"true_flagged": 0,
"units": 56
},
"pooled": {
"coverage": 0.0,
"flagged": 0,
"flagged_precision": null,
"flagged_precision_ci": null,
"flagged_precision_lb": null,
"groups": 37,
"meets_target_lb": false,
"meets_target_point": false,
"positives": 38,
"true_flagged": 0,
"units": 66
},
"reason_by_fold": {
"outer-0": "calibration",
"outer-1": "calibration",
"outer-2": "calibration",
"outer-3": "calibration",
"outer-4": "calibration"
},
"thresholds_by_fold": {
"outer-0": null,
"outer-1": null,
"outer-2": null,
"outer-3": null,
"outer-4": null
}
},
"B": {
"floor": {
"errors": 0,
"flagged": 0,
"floor": 10,
"may_block": false
},
"paired": {
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"flagged_precision_ci": null,
"flagged_precision_lb": null,
"groups": 28,
"meets_target_lb": false,
"meets_target_point": false,
"positives": 28,
"true_flagged": 0,
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},
"pooled": {
"coverage": 0.0,
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"flagged_precision_ci": null,
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"positives": 38,
"true_flagged": 0,
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},
"quiet_recall": {
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"pooled": 0.9211
},
"t_block_by_fold": {
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},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
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"outer-2": 0.4202772526614184,
"outer-3": 0.4481849709797749,
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}
},
"capacity": {
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"not_run": 0,
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}
}
},
"deserialization": {
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},
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},
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"outer-0": "calibration",
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},
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}
},
"B": {
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"may_block": false
},
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},
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"true_flagged": 0,
"units": 64
},
"quiet_recall": {
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"pooled": 0.9231
},
"t_block_by_fold": {
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"outer-1": null,
"outer-2": null,
"outer-3": null,
"outer-4": null
},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
"outer-0": 0.17507194490500488,
"outer-1": 0.22766488322270723,
"outer-2": 0.2163745870743959,
"outer-3": 0.3112201878893598,
"outer-4": 0.363243722721776
}
},
"capacity": {
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"paired_positives_by_training_folds": {
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}
}
},
"injection": {
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"outer-4": null
},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
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"outer-1": 0.17524866355153343,
"outer-2": 0.12918182665453967,
"outer-3": 0.14521040470628938,
"outer-4": 0.23005714687697673
}
},
"capacity": {
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"excluded_replay_miss": 0,
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"paired_positives_by_training_folds": {
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}
}
},
"output_encoding": {
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
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}
},
"capacity": {
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}
}
},
"path": {
"A": {
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"ece": 0.0621,
"paired": {
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},
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},
"reason_by_fold": {
"outer-0": "calibration",
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"outer-3": "calibration",
"outer-4": "calibration"
},
"thresholds_by_fold": {
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}
},
"B": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
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},
"capacity": {
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}
}
},
"untrusted_destination": {
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},
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},
"reason_by_fold": {
"outer-0": "calibration",
"outer-1": "calibration",
"outer-2": "calibration",
"outer-3": "calibration",
"outer-4": "calibration"
},
"thresholds_by_fold": {
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}
},
"B": {
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"may_block": false
},
"paired": {
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},
"pooled": {
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"flagged_precision_ci": null,
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"positives": 50,
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},
"quiet_recall": {
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},
"t_block_by_fold": {
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"outer-1": null,
"outer-2": null,
"outer-3": null,
"outer-4": null
},
"t_quiet_by_fold": {
"outer-0": 0.13676746287025585,
"outer-1": 0.11255775703980551,
"outer-2": 0.13763698150768486,
"outer-3": 0.09787938647374639,
"outer-4": 0.13763698150768486
}
},
"capacity": {
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"excluded_replay_miss": 0,
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}
}
}
},
"hypothesis": "One BLOCK threshold pooled across families on a per-family Platt-normalised score, chosen on training folds only as the lowest one whose Wilson 95% lower bound on flagged precision is >= 0.95, reaches that bound on held-out repositories' paired units, where per-family thresholds (exp-003) could not for lack of flags; a per-family floor (>= 10 held-out flags, none wrong) keeps a family that the pooling masks from blocking.\n",
"manifest_digest": "87fceb6580c6de629d6a6089eb5888cdfc4df0f791576184f987c14c192d85f5",
"min_flagged_for_bound": 73,
"overall": {
"A": {
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"positives": 195,
"true_flagged": 0,
"units": 390
},
"pooled": {
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}
},
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},
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}
}
},
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}
},
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]
},
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{
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}
],
"reason": "B offers no BLOCK on held-out paired units; the incumbent stays",
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},
{
"name": "coverage"
},
{
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{
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}
}