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+# Hunt baseline on the 12 pilot positives (task 3.2), 2026-10-13
+
+The first DSPy hunt program (today's hunter prompt plus the changed hunks and the four producers' annotations,
+ReAct over read_file, grep_repo and find_refs, at most 8 steps, deepseek-flash at temperature 0) run over the 12
+verified pilot positives as a report run. Records: `~/ousast-results/hunt/baseline-positives/records{,-v2}/`.
+Scorer: `benchmarks/unseen/score.py`, the same as the pilot.
+
+| Run | Answer check | Search recall | Parse failures | Cost (tokens at our prices) |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Pilot hunter (2026-10-12, hand-written prompt, no hunks) | none | 6 of 12 | - | - |
+| Baseline run 1 | counted only the rendered function as shown (bug) | 1 of 12 | 2 | about $0.65 |
+| Baseline run 1, as reported by the model | (family as the model gave it) | thefuck x2, jupyterlab-lsp, contentful at the right family | - | - |
+| Baseline run 2 (fixed check: tool-read lines count as shown) | fixed | 3 of 12 (jupyterlab-lsp, ckan-mcp-server, malla) | 2 | about $0.44 |
+
+What this says:
+
+- **The instrument bug was real and is fixed** (commit 602ec23): 7 of 8 suspicions in run 1 cited lines the model
+  had read through `read_file` and were wrongly scored as `unknown`.
+- **Run 2 was meant to replay run 1 from the response cache and did not.** The answers and per-change times
+  differ (thefuck: two path findings in run 1, none in run 2; md-editor: a hit in the pilot, a parse failure in
+  run 2). At temperature 0 the provider's answers are not stable from run to run, and the DSPy cache did not
+  serve the second run. The per-run cache is now configured through `dspy.configure_cache` (602ec23); whether it
+  replays has to be checked before any run is called a replay.
+- **One run per program is not a measurement.** On 12 positives a single run moves by several hits between
+  identical programs. Any comparison between programs or masks has to repeat each arm (k runs, paired by change)
+  and report the paired bootstrap and McNemar from `openultrasast.stats`. The acceptance rule (requirements 6.2,
+  6.5) already demands intervals; this run shows why the variance has to be inside them.
+- The two programs are not yet equal on the same footing: the baseline adds hunks and annotations to the pilot
+  hunter's prompt and runs a different loop. 3 of 12 against 6 of 12 is not a significant difference on this n
+  (one run each) and is not read as one.
+
+Next: verify cache replay on one change (two runs, identical output and zero new tokens), then k = 5 runs of the
+baseline and of the pilot hunter's prompt on the 12 positives, paired by change.