Commit Graph
8 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
Marius CiepluchandClaude Opus 5.5 6d9850578e learn: dry-run estimate from measured cached-response cost; docs: exp-004 result; tidy instrument check
The estimator priced all input at the full rate (\$5.58 estimated vs \$1.24
spent); it now uses the family mean billed cost of cached responses when usage
is recorded. Implemented with Codex.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
2026-10-03 14:23:36 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Opus 5.5 b50f7afccb learn: exp-004 run -- inconclusive, no pooled t_block; fill \$1.24 of a \$2 ceiling, replay \$0; instrument check recorded
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
2026-10-03 14:18:17 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Opus 5.5 da91ef0dd9 exp-003: supplementary all-units replay after the cache fill; exp-004 registered
Supplementary analysis, not a new decision: exp-003's verdict stands.
The 142 units excluded for an uncached response were filled with the same
six incumbent programs, parameters and request keys, on exp-003's
937-example memory (the harvest's 196 rows and its 2026-10-03 embeddings
left out; a zero-cost replay first reproduced exp-003 exactly: 211
decided, 1056 replayed, $0.582876). Fill: MeteredClient, ceiling $0.99
under the approved $1.00, 697 client calls, $0.331759, no provider error.

Replay on all 353 units (244 paired, 146 groups): 0 client calls, $0.0,
1768 responses replayed; no arm flags any unit, the registered rule reads
inconclusive. Calibration holds only for untrusted destination (ECE
0.0454) and arm A still finds no BLOCK point there.
benchmarks/experiments/exp-003-precision-bound-blocking/result-complete-cache.json

exp-004 registered in s3://sast-memory (manifest 87fceb65..., pin
2ad9c1d, units pending): benchmarks/experiments/exp-004-pooled-block-gate/
registration.json. docs/decision-engine.md: both, briefly.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-03 09:47:20 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Opus 5.5 b31c85678f exp-003: result -- inconclusive, no BLOCK rule flags a held-out unit
Zero-cost replay of the six slice-2 programs: meter 0 client calls, $0.0;
211 of 353 units scored, 142 excluded for an uncached response (path lost
all 39). Arm A (calibrated) fails calibration (ECE 0.077 access control,
0.1067 injection); arm B (Wilson LB >= 0.95, nested) chooses no threshold on
any fold, as the registration's power note predicted (73 clean flags needed,
38 paired injection positives); secondary arm C flags nothing either. The
instrument check shows real scores; the zero is the rule's.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-03 08:15:22 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Opus 5.5 7bb97ad0bc exp-003: registration, before the run
Registered in s3://sast-memory at dd7ebc1: manifest 5917f9a1, units 338de998
(353 units, 146 groups). Primary metric, decision rule and the threshold
selection are fixed in the manifest; the power note says arm B cannot reach
a Wilson LB of 0.95 on this data (73 clean flags needed, 38 paired
positives at most).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-03 08:03:22 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Fable 5.1 48510fd5c2 bench(learn): exp-002 result -- retrieval ensemble vs temperature sampling
Reject B. 160 paired units (injection 119, access_control 41; 56 repositories),
both arms, two replicates each, no early stop. Canary agreement A 0.875 -> B
0.906 (CI [-0.03, +0.10], spans; B meets 0.90). Within-pair AUC A 0.815 -> B
0.741 (CI [-0.13, -0.02], against B). AUC -0.02 (against), ADVISORY recall
-0.06 and precision +0.01 (span), usd per candidate A $0.0021 -> B $0.0051
(against). Priced usage A $0.68 / B $1.63; balance $16.72 -> $16.04 at the
run's end (lags). Counts only; task 7.4 marked done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-02 19:05:34 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Fable 5.1 8d45483d10 bench(learn): exp-002 registration recorded with the frozen units
The experiment row in s3://sast-memory now carries units_digest 0de66bfa... at
pin 9213e5f (manifest digest unchanged, f5004fb8...). Counts per family and the
two repairs the freeze needed are in the record; no model.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-02 17:28:55 +02:00
Marius CiepluchandClaude Fable 5.1 3b91a52788 bench(learn): exp-001 and exp-002 registered in the memory store, units pending (decision-engine task 7.2)
Registration rows at pin fbc3220 in s3://sast-memory; in-repo records under
benchmarks/experiments/<id>/registration.json. exp-002's units could not be
frozen: every example row in the store carries null plane-only instruments
and learn.examples.load_examples raises on them (unchanged code since
a90e570) -- a store-side change to diagnose before any paid run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <[email protected]>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmM1j46qgKMh3zqD1QMwEo
2026-10-02 16:08:36 +02:00